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TDP threat to BJP revives 'third front' hopes

N Sathiya Moorthy in Madras

The Telugu Desam Party's assessment that the Bharatiya Janata Party-led coalition government has lost its "moral authority" to rule has given a fresh lease of life to the dream of some politicians of reviving the 'third front'.

Sources in the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam, the ruling party in Tamil Nadu, feel so, even if the TDP itself is not enthusiastic about a 'pressure group' against the Congress and the BJP evolving at this juncture.

"The strong TDP reaction over the Australian priest's murder in Orissa could reopen the suspended chapter of destabilisation at the Centre," said a DMK source. "Given the evolving anti-BJP mood of the minorities across the country, TDP chief and Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister N Chandrababu Naidu may be forced to rethink his 'outside support' to the government."

Both the TDP and Lok Shakti, allies of the BJP in Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka, respectively, face assembly elections in their home states later this year.

"If they thought the 'anti-Muslim' image of the BJP would die down with the Vajpayee government assuming office, they were wrong. It has only been strengthened by the anti-Christian actions in Gujarat, Orissa and elsewhere," the DMK politician said.

Already, the TDP is feeling the pinch. The party worries that the minorities may vote Congress in the changed circumstances, leading to a repeat of the North Indian assembly poll scenario of November.

"Lok Shakti leader Ramakrishna Hegde is facing a similar predicament in Karnataka," said the politician, which is why he is now talking about a "non-Congress, non-BJP combine", which is what the proposed third front is all about.

"Both Naidu and Hegde know that regional parties, including those led by them, will be marginalised if the anti-BJP plank is allowed to be cornered by the Congress. They have to set the ball rolling for a credible third front," he argued.

Indications are that the DMK will wait for such an initiative to start courting the Congress. Alternatively, it is looking to its ally, the Tamil Maanila Congress, to make an alliance with the Congress possible.

With the Atal Bihari Vajpayee government defending All-India Anna DMK general secretary J Jayalalitha's line in the court cases pending against her, and revived communal tensions besmirching the BJP's new-found image, the DMK has hardly any other option.

DMK supremo and Tamil Nadu Chief Minister Muthuvel Karunanidhi's declaration on Sunday at Cuddalore that "the alliance with the TMC is strong" should be read in this context. Said the politician: "The DMK sees the evolution of a credible, pro-Congress third front at the Centre as a distinct possibility. We also feel the TMC will have to continue to work with us, either through this third front or otherwise, for backing the Congress at the national level."

TMC sources, however, are cautious and do not want to "jump to conclusions" on the basis of the TDP's statement. "The political situation in Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka is more complex than that," said a member of the party. "The TDP and Lok Shakti will have to accept the Congress in one form or the other if they want to withdraw support to the Vajpayee government. Until they are ready to do that, and also make sure that an alternative government is possible, they will be seen as 'government-wreckers'."

But the numbers may not favour an alternative government at this juncture. "You should also remember how the BJP took the people with it while splitting rival parties in Uttar Pradesh at a difficult time, for the Kalyan Singh government to survive not one, but two confidence votes," the TMC politician cautioned. "In such a case, even the Congress will lose the psychological advantage in the upcoming assembly elections."

While the TMC would prefer doing business with the Congress directly, the possibility of a third front at the national level is making it cautious. "If the third front becomes a reality, whether or not we want it, we will have to work with the DMK to achieve our goal of seeing a Sonia Gandhi-led Congress government at the Centre," the TMC politician said. "The alternative is for the Congress to choose the AIADMK."

In a way, the DMK, with no real chance of a tie-up with the BJP, is counting on the TMC to take it closer to the Congress. Interestingly, it is the 'minor partner', the TMC, which is keeping its options open. Leaders and cadres alike of the party that has been talking of reviving "Kamaraj rule" are discussing the possibility of leading a non-DMK, non-AIADMK third front in the state assembly election due in 2001.

"It's the possibilities at the national level that's forcing us to sit quiet and work to strengthen the party at the grassroots," said the TMC politician, conceding the need for the party to strike deeper roots if it is to strike a 'respectable bargain' even with the DMK.

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