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BJP demands another chance, counts on split in Opposition

Amberish K Diwanji in New Delhi

With the Congress, the third front and the Left realising that every victory at Panipat does not mean the throne of Delhi, the Bharatiya Janata Party and its allies, ousted from government on Saturday by a solitary vote, remains hopeful of a comeback. The mood in the BJP camp is defiant and the party is determined to make life as difficult for the Opposition as possible.

The BJP and its allies are banking on the divisions and inherent contradictions within the Opposition. It has declared that with the country not in a position to go to the poll right now, and the Opposition unable to provide an alternative, it should be recalled to form the government once more.

"The combined Opposition must offer proof to the President of support from more than 270 members in the Lok Sabha. Otherwise we should be invited again rather than dissolve the House," said a BJP official.

The figure of 270 is quoted because the BJP and its allies had gathered that many votes on Saturday.

Defence Minister George Fernandes too declared that the Opposition must show letters of support of at least 271 members.

The BJP cites a precedent in support of this claim: the United Front was recalled to head the government after it lost the confidence vote in April 1997. Its government headed by H D Deve Gowda lost in the Lok Sabha when the Congress, which was giving the 13-party member outside support, withdrew its backing. However, after Deve Gowda resigned, the Congress once again reiterated its support to the United Front minus Deve Gowda. I K Gujral had then became the prime minister.

"The 1997 case clearly shows that if there is no alternative available, then the President must once more give a chance to the party that has been ousted before dissolving the Lok Sabha and going in for election," said the BJP official.

The BJP expects that the divisions within the Opposition will prevent it from being able to show support from 271 members, which the President is insisting upon. The Tamil Maanila Congress has warned that it will not support any government that has the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam in it. With such problems, the BJP is sure that it can once more prove its majority.

The party is working hard to prevent splits in its allies, many of whom are vulnerable -- particularly the Samata Party and the Biju Janata Dal -- while simultaneously wooing disgruntled members from the Opposition so as not to fall short again. The leadership is aware that should the Opposition form the government, then many allies would quit and support the new government. Hence, there is some desperation in the BJP to either form the government or to be part of a government led by another party.

An alternative idea is to allow a smaller party to head the government, with the BJP supporting it. This way, the party will remain in government at the crucial time just before election, and also defeat the machinations of the Opposition. Thus, the BJP and its ally, the Samata Party, have appealed to certain opposition parties that are averse to the Congress, to take the lead.

The BJP also insists that if elections are to be held, then it must continue to remain the caretaker government. The very real worry for the BJP is that the Opposition might be able to show letters of support from 271 members and will then be sworn in by the President. However, after the swearing in, there will be a vote of confidence, which will be a tricky affair. And what if the vote of confidence is defeated? Will the President then ask them -- the new government -- to stay on as caretaker government?

Meanwhile, by agreeing to pass the Budget without any amendments, as insisted upon by the BJP, the Congress has saved itself a lot of trouble. Industrialists had vented their ire at the Congress for disrupting the Budget process and warned them to ensure the passage of the Finance Bill. Also, the Congress is wary of introducing a new Budget in which the Left wants a major say. Thus by agreeing to clear the BJP budget, the Congress has saved itself from trouble in future.

All parties are treating the days ahead as days of campaigning. Vajpayee has already exhorted his party workers to be ready for another election.

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