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Congress finds the going tougher than it had thought

George Iype in New Delhi

A day after the fall of the government led by Bharatiya Janata Party politician Atal Bihari Vajpayee, efforts to shape an alternative coalition gained little momentum as the Opposition led by the Congress began realising that putting together a new government is going to be a Herculean task.

Serious differences of opinion, ideological problems, and the politics of caste marred the progress of negotiations among the Congress, the All-India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam, the Rashtriya Loktantrik Morcha (National Democratic Front) and the Bahujan Samaj Party.

While the Congress said that it is awaiting a communication from President K R Narayanan to officially stake its claim to form the government, the Left parties failed to arrive at a consensus on supporting a Congress-led coalition.

Meanwhile, senior BJP politicians met at the residence of caretaker Prime Minister Vajpayee to chalk out their strategy. Realising that the Opposition may fail to piece together an alternative, BJP strategists have been told to try and rustle up the numbers once again to return to power.

The BJP's optimism stems from the one-vote margin of defeat in the Lower House. Vajpayee and his Cabinet colleagues believe the Opposition led by the Congress will probably fail to show the President a list of more than 270 MPs to form the next government.

In that event, Narayanan may either ask Vajpayee to continue as caretaker prime minister or prove his numbers if the BJP again claims to have majority support in the Lok Sabha.

In the Congress camp, as senior politicians continued discussions with party president Sonia Gandhi to decide on the new arrangement, what emerged at the end of the day was not consensus, but confusion.

While most Congressmen want Gandhi to lead the next government, some pointed out that the leadership's strategy of muddling through troubled waters is beginning to erode its credibility and image that were carefully cultivated over the last year.

But Congress politicians put up brave faces, insisting that a new coalition would emerge with the majority on its side. "We are hopeful and confident of forming the alternative government soon. We are just waiting for the President to call us," claimed working committee member K Karunakaran after an hour-long meeting with Gandhi.

Karunakaran told Rediff On The NeT that if the Congress is told by the President to lead a coalition, such an arrangement will have to be headed by Sonia Gandhi.

"We will go by the Congress tradition that the party president and its parliamentary party leader heads any government led by the party," he said.

But despite the Congress's optimism, there has been little enthusiasm from RLM leaders Mulayam Singh Yadav and Laloo Prasad Yadav for the idea of a Congress-led government.

In a rebuff to the Congress, RLM spokesperson Amar Singh said the Congress cannot claim credit for bringing the Vajpayee government down. "It was a combined Opposition effort that resulted in the defeat of the BJP government. Therefore, the RLM wants to actively participate in any government that will emerge now," Singh told Rediff On The NeT.

He said the RLM's demand is justified as "we with 37 MPs are the second largest group in the Opposition".

The RLM's demand has the sanction of AIADMK general secretary J Jayalalitha who met Mulayam Singh and Laloo Prasad to decide that they will all be part of any coalition government that comes up now.

The leaders of four major Left parties will resume their discussion tomorrow in an attempt to arrive at a consensus on supporting a Congress-led government.

As the Opposition gropes in the dark, political pundits said the most likely scenario seems to be the formation of a Third Front-led coalition supported from outside by the Congress.

Sources said Gandhi herself is not keen on leading a government at this juncture. But in the wake of the dramatic developments that led to the downfall of the BJP-led coalition, she is grappling with the difficulties that might arise if the party decides to support from outside a coalition led by the Third Front and the Left parties.

Gandhi's lack of interest -- despite intense pressure from most senior Congressmen -- stems from the fear that the party's -- and her -- image could take a beating if it decides to lead a government with her at the helm.

On Sunday, during her discussions with Karunakaran, Sharad Pawar, Manmohan Singh and Arjun Singh, Gandhi is said to have expressed the fear that once in power, the Congress will have the almost impossible task of accommodating the wish-lists of politicians like Jayalalitha and Laloo Yadav.

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