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The women's bastion

There is a golden rule for predicting how the Congress shall react to any given situation. Listen to what it says; it is bound to do the opposite.

At the All India Congress Committee session in August 1997, for instance, Sitaram Kesri (remember him?) promised Inder Kumar Gujral another chance to bore the nation from the Red Fort on Independence Day. Three months later the Congress pulled down the United Front ministry. It was, therefore, easy to see what was coming when the Congress conclave at Panchmarhi ended by setting its face against alliances with all and sundry...

Sonia Gandhi hasn't yet stated her gameplan openly. But recent announcements leave little doubt that she is reconciled to losing the Congress' former self-sufficiency. But who are the lucky few identified as potential allies?

The first, almost certainly, is All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazagham chief J Jayalalitha. On her recent visit to Delhi the AIADMK boss announced that she would keep her options open. Why was Jayalalitha so coy about naming the Congress? Given that M Karunanidhi's Dravida Munnetra Kazagham is her sworn foe, Sonia Gandhi Ltd is her only option if she ditches the Bharatiya Janata Party.

But are Congressmen open to restoring the old alliance with the AIADMK? They don't have much of a choice having drawn a blank in Tamil Nadu in two successive elections. The AIADMK may not want to withdraw its ministers from the Union Cabinet right away but anything could happen if polls are on the horizon.

The second proposed ally being wooed by the Congress is the Bahujan Samaj Party's Mayawati. She too finds herself in the same position as Jayalalitha, having antagonised the major parties in her native state, the BJP and Mulayam Singh Yadav's Samajwadi Party. The Congress may be relatively insignificant in Uttar Pradesh but every little bit counts for Mayawati. A potential alliance in Uttar Pradesh may come through if both parties come to an understanding for the Madhya Pradesh assembly poll.

Unlike Jayalalitha, however, Mayawati is not the sole centre of gravity in her party. Kanshi Ram, founder-president of the Bahujan Samaj Party, has openly declared that the party shall contest every seat in Madhya Pradesh. It was precisely such mixed signals that ended in breaking the BSP in Uttar Pradesh; could we see more of the same in Madhya Pradesh?

Sonia Gandhi's third proposed partner is Rabri Devi, the puppet chief minister of Bihar. Well actually the Congress wants to grasp the hand of Rabri Devi's husband, but Rashtriya Janata Dal chief Laloo Prasad Yadav is just a bit too controversial to say so openly.

After all, at Panchmarhi the Congress had some pretty harsh words for the Rashtriya Loktantrik Morcha, the supposed successor to the United Front set up by Mulayam Singh Yadav and Laloo Yadav. But it soon became apparent that the Congress president was prepared to distinguish between the two.

Salman Khurshid, Sonia Gandhi's hand-picked nominee as head of the Congress' Uttar Pradesh unit, has been hammering away at the Samajwadi Party. Under his regime, Congressmen have begun describing the Samajwadi Party as a casteist outfit and tried their best to woo away its Muslim voters. But Sonia Gandhi hasn't bothered to rein in her followers despite repeated protests from the Samajwadi Party.

Compare that indifference to Mulayam Singh Yadav's feelings with her reaction when Congressmen criticise the situation in Bihar -- Rajesh Pilot ventured to make some mild comments on Rabri Devi's poor governance. This immediately drew the wrath of no less than Sonia Gandhi herself.

The message is clear: Laloo Yadav in Bihar and Mayawati in Uttar Pradesh. This could break the RLM, yet that shouldn't worry the Bihar chieftain. He had, in fact, tried to forge an alliance with the Congress and the BSP even before the last general election. But there is no role for Mulayam Singh Yadav in Sonia Gandhi's script.

A lady who knows all about drama on and off the stage is the last of the candidates identified by Sonia Gandhi as a potential ally -- Lakshmi Parvathi of the NTR Telugu Desam, once a BJP ally. If only she could woo the voters of Andhra Pradesh as easily as she does the national parties, Lakshmi Parvathi would have been chief minister in Hyderabad long ago!

So there you have them, the five women who could form a potential anti-BJP front at the next polls -- Sonia Gandhi, Jayalalitha, Mayawati, Rabri Devi, and Lakshmi Parvathi. Just don't expect Sonia Gandhi to say so openly!

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