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Jaya and her coded messages

N Sathiya Moorthy in Madras

After about a month of silence, All India Anna DMK chief J Jayalalitha has targeted the BJP coalition at the Centre, alleging a 'secret deal' between Prime Minister A B Vajpayee and Tamil Nadu Chief Minister M Karunanidhi on the Cauvery accord, even while reopening her forgotten demand for the dismissal of the DMK government.

Of course, the two issues are separate, and Jayalalitha has issued separate statements on them. Even without that, however, Jayalalitha has become a prolific statement-writer for the Madras media corps, and her latest two have reopened an issue that she had left on hold for some two months now.

Jayalalitha had earlier talked about a 'BJP-DMK nexus' that seeking to split the AIADMK. That was over three months back, at the height of her differences with the BJP leadership. Though denials were prompt in coming from both the BJP and the DMK even then, as it did now, there was some truth in her allegations when it was first made. Not necessarily now.

Obviously, Jayalalitha has renewed her old charge, with this month's assembly election in four north Indian states in mind. She has made no bones about her intention to keep the 'Congress option' open, and had even made a virtue of such a political strategy at her last media meet at Delhi.

Jayalalitha's immediate provocation is even more obvious. Last week, the Madras high court upheld the legality of the state government-appointed special courts to try the graft cases pertaining to her chief ministership. With the high court finding a 'prima facie case' for her and her erstwhile ministerial colleagues to prove their innocence, even the Supreme Court seems reluctant to interfere with the due process.

The Supreme Court has also declined to stay the high court order, even while fixing an early, November 23, hearing on Jayalalitha's special leave petition in this regard. This means, the three special courts could continue with their pre-trial procedural proceedings, including framing of charges, the crucial stage before daily hearings could commence. This, in turn, also means avoidance of further delays, should the apex court too uphold the legality and constitutional validity of the special courts.

Jayalalitha's ire at the ruling DMK in Tamil Nadu is understandable, in this regard. As her recent statements would hint at, she also seems to be upset with the BJP not coming to her help, politically, when she required it the most.

Through her first statement, Jayalalitha has reopened the Cauvery accord issue, on which she had threatened to 'review' the AIADMK's support to the Vajpayee government. That was also an issue on which all her non-BJP political allies in the state were united, before the PMK, MDMK and the Thamizhaga Rajiv Congress drifted away to back the BJP wholesale.

What's the trade-off on the Cauvery accord? Jayalalitha says Karunanidhi offered the prime minister a political plank to prove his efficiency and non-partisan sincerity, against Vajpayee's promise not to dismiss the DMK government. A charge he had made earlier, too, only that the timing now becomes even more crucial -- for Jayalalitha, in particular.

Jayalalitha has followed it up with another statement, a day later, reviving her demand for the dismissal of the DMK government. For this, she has cited the deposition of the 'Q' branch chief of the state police handling anti-terrorism, before the Justice M K Mahajan tribunal on extending the Centre's ban on the LTTE. The police official had spoken about 'continued LTTE presence' in the state, while seeking an extension of the ban.

Obviously, neither the state police, nor the state government wanted to be blamed again on the LTTE front, after Rajiv Gandhi's assassination. It has taken the safest possible course, justified, of course, by intelligence information, given the large-scale presence of Sri Lankan Tamil refugees in the state, whose ranks the LTTE could have infiltrated without effort and detection.

Jayalalitha's attempts are clear: she is seeking to link up the BJP and the DMK, saying that the former is providing a cover for the latter, against her 'dismissal demands'. Her aides also complain, in private, about the BJP ignoring 'well-documented' AIADMK hints at applying 'governmental pressure' on the DMK and its leaders, be it on the dismissal question or on the personal front, pertaining to tax matters and the like.

The BJP and the DMK have denied Jayalaitha's charges. Apart from BJP general secretary M Venkaiah Naidu at Delhi, state party vice-president V Maithreyan, known to be sympathetic to the AIADMK, has joined issue with Jayalalitha. The DMK denial has come from state PWD minister S Durai Murugan, who has also referred to the high court verdict in this regard.

Both sides also rule out any 'political conspiracy' of the type left unsaid by Jayalalitha. There was no way the BJP and the DMK could join hands, to use the legal way to try eliminate Jayalaitha, politically, they argue. BJP sources in particular point to the presence of the AIADMK's M Thambi Durai as the Union law minister, who could both oversee and foresee such situations.

Jayalalitha's current statements, that way, could be construed as part of the AIADMK's attempts at giving a political colour to her legal problems. With the BJP facing tough days ahead with the assembly election of November 25, her statements are more than a coded message.

It's also a coded message to the Congress, that the AIADMK is keeping Jayalalitha's public promise on 'open options', alive. But BJP sources say, there will be little option left for Jayalalitha after the November poll, even if the BJP were to lose them badly -- as predicted in some quarters.

Should the Supreme Court affixes its stamp of approval on the high court verdict, any withdrawal of support to the Vajpayee government by the AIADMK would be interpreted differently. Continuance of the alliance, now and later, on the other hand would be proof of the BJP's steadfast adherence to moral values, and non-interference in legal processes.

How far is the Congress keen on the AIADMK, is another question. If it's aimed at replacing the Vajpayee government, Congress leaders concede more problems for the party than being faced by the BJP, starting with their individual Lok Sabha strengths, 141 to 180. There will be greater problems for the coalition leader from its allies, than facing the BJP now.

At the AIADMK-level, the party is sure to repeat its 'dismissal demand', which even the BJP is afraid of reviving. It would not take Jayalalitha much time to speak of a 'secret deal' between the Congress and the DMK, and rattle yet another coalition apple-cart.

The alternative is for the Congress, in the company of the AIADMK and others, going in for fresh polls to the Lok Sabha. Any Congress victory in the assembly poll this month would re-vitalise and re-energise the party into favouring such a course, but an adverse apex court verdict for the AIADMK now could also mean an adverse criminal trial on a day-to-day basis, with wide media publicity in Tamil Nadu and elsewhere.

Any Congress tieup with the AIADMK, particularly after an adverse apex court verdict, could be used by the BJP to tarnish the former's image. The Congress would once again be seen as a party of power-grabbers, which it could do without, whether or not it wins the assembly election.

It's these thoughts that have bound the AIADMK to the BJP still -- and Jayalalitha is unsure whether any threat of withdrawal of support to the Vajpayee government at this juncture would damage the party's chances in the assembly poll, or revive it.

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