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2100 hours, March 2, 1998

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ELECTIONS '96

Haryana, Maharashtra, Rajasthan frustrate BJP's impressive march

The Bharatiya Janata Party has won the Banswara (Rajasthan), Bombay North, Erandol (Maharashtra), Ahmedabad (Gujarat), Tumkur, Shimoga (Karnataka), Gurudaspur, Hoshiarpur (Punjab) and Daman and Diu Lok Sabha seats, and is leading, along with allies, in 181 of 402 constituencies where trends are available.

The Congress -- which won the Ajmer, Bhilwara, Ganganagar, Pali (Rajasthan), Lakshadweep seats -- and allies are leading in 131 constituencies, and the United Front in 72. Other parties are ahead in 18 constituencies.

Prime Minister Inder Kumar Gujral (Jalandhar), Union Finance Minister P Chidambaram (Sivaganga), former prime minister H D Deve Gowda (Hassan) and former Union minister Buta Singh (Jalore) have been declared elected.

After making rapid strides in Gujarat, Karnataka, Orissa and Tamil Nadu, the BJP promises to surge forward in states like Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh.

The saffron party is leading in 34 of the 46 seats in Uttar Pradesh, for which trends are available. Union Defence Minister Mulayam Singh Yadav's Samajwadi Party is leading only in 10 of these constituencies. The supremo himself leads at Sambhal.

The Congress and the Bahujan Samaj Party are leading in one seat each.

The BJP is leading in six of eight constituencies in Bihar.

In Madhya Pradesh, the BJP is leading in 18 of the 26 constituencies. The Congress is leading in the other seats.

However, the party suffered major reverses in Rajasthan, where the Congress has virtually swept the Lok Sabha poll. In Haryana, former deputy prime minister Devi Lal's Haryana Lok Dal made a major dent in the saffron brigade's vote bank. The party has suffered heavy blows in Maharashtra, too, where the Congress is now in a formidable position.

The trends so far indicate the anti-incumbency factor was uppermost on the voters's minds in states like Karnataka, Maharashtra, Rajasthan and Tamil Nadu. However, this was not so in Punjab -- where the BJP-Akali Dal established a clear lead -- and, to a little extent, in Andhra Pradesh, where the Telugu Desam Party seems to have succeeded in stopping the Congress and the BJP from making major gains.

The major reverse appears to be in Tamil Nadu, where every single poll spoke of a sweep by the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam-Tamil Manila Congress alliance, now ruling the state. Contrary to that perception, it is the BJP-All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam combine that has shot into the lead.

Early analysis indicates that two reasons could be responsible for the reversal -- the anti-incumbency factor, and the consolidation of anti-DMK votes under the AIADMK-BJP led alliance.

While early trends cannot provide scope for conclusive analysis, it would appear that fears regarding the law and order situation, as evidenced by a spate of communal clashes climaxed by the serial bomb blasts in Coimbatore, could also have worked against the DMK-TMC combine.

The trends as of now are:

In Andhra Pradesh, the Telugu Desam Party leads in Anakapalli, Nandiyal, Nizamabad (held by NRI Gaddam Atma Charan Reddy who is now contesting on a BJP ticket) and Tenali; the BJP in Karimnagar, Rajahmundry, Secunderabad (against P V Narasimha Rao's son Rajeshwara Rao) and Nalgonda; the Congress in Nellore, Anantpur, Kurnool, Hindupur, Machilipatnam, Srikakulam and Vijayawada; the CPI-M in Khammam.

In Kurnool, Congress Working Committee member Kotla Vijayabhaskara Reddy is leading.

In Arunachal Pradesh, the Arunachal Congress candidates were leading over Congress rivals in Arunachal West and East seats.

In Assam, the Congress leads in Jorhat, Dibrugarh and Karimganj. The CPI-M is ahead in Barpeta.

In Bihar, the BJP is leading in six of the eight seats.

In Delhi, the BJP is leading in four of the seven constituencies, and the Congress in one. The BJP candidates who are ahead in the capital are party spokesperson Sushma Swaraj (South Delhi), Jagmohan (New Delhi), Lal Behari Tiwari (East Delhi) and Vijay Goel (Chandni Chowk).

The lone Congress candidate to establish a lead is Meira Kumar, in Karol Bagh.

Congress's R K Dhawan is trailing behind Jagmohan by 8,136 votes. The latter had won the seat in 1996 by a margin of around 48,000 votes against the Congress's Rajesh Khanna.

In Goa, Union Law Minister Ramakant Khalap is trailing in Panaji. In Marmugoa, the Congress is leading.

In Gujarat, the BJP leads in Gandhinagar, Junagadh, Surat and Surat East and Wadhvan. Party president L K Advani has taken a lead of 10,000 votes over his nearest rival, Congressman P K Dutta.

In Haryana, HLD's Devi Lal is leading by 1,744 votes over state Congress chief Bhupinder Singh Hooda in Rohtak. In Karnal, former chief minister Bhajan Bal leads by over 8,340 over the BJP candidate.

In Himachal Pradesh, Congress is leading in Nachan. The BJP is ahead in Shimla and Kullu.

In Karnataka, S Bangarappa was defeated by the BJP's A Manjunath. Deve Gowda has been declared elected from Hassan. Film star Amberish has won from Mandya. The Tumkur seat went to the BJP.

The Lok Shakti leads in Bagalkot, Chikkodi and Dharwar South; and the BJP in Mysore. Margaret Alva of the Congress is trailing by 9,000 votes in Kanara.

In Kanakpura, former Union minister R L Jalappa, who joined the Congress on the eve of the election, is leading by a margin of around 20,000 votes over Agriculture Minister C Byre Gowda of the Janata Dal.

The BJP is leading in Bidar, Gulbarga, Bangalore South and Udupi.

The Congress is ahead in Chitradurga, Koppal, Bangalore North.

In Kerala, the Communist Party of India-Marxist leads in Chirayankil, Manjeri and Palghat. An independent is ahead in Mavelikkara. The Kerala Congress-Mani is ahead in Muvattupuzha. The CPI is leading in Adoor.

In Thiruvananthapuram, CPI-M's K V Surendranath is trailing behind Congress veteran K Karunakaran. The Congress is also leading in Allepey, Kottayam and Calicut.

In Madhya Pradesh, CWC member Arjun Singh is trailing in Hoshangabad. The BJP is leading in Vidisha, Dhar, Bilaspur, Khargone, Ujjain, Shajapur, Bhopal, Khandwa, Bhahool, Jhabua, Damoh, Manduar, Vidisha and Bhind.

Congress leader Kamal Nath is ahead of the BJP in Chindwara.

In Maharashtra, Congress leader Sharad Pawar leads over his nearest rival Viraj Babulal Kakade of the BJP by 44,099 votes. In Bombay South, party candidate Murli Deora is ahead by 14,822 votes. The Congress also leads in Jalgaon, Dhule, Ratnagiri, Sattara, Beed, Pandarhpur, Kolhapur and Sholapur.

BJP candidate Ram Naik leads in Bombay North. The party is also ahead in Thane, Yavatmal and Erandol. The Shiv Sena leads in Rajapur and Bombay North West.

In Maharashtra, the Congress appears set to reverse the results of the last election, wherein the party took a mere 15 of the 48 seats. This time round, the Congress is gaining, and indications are that two factors are working in its favour. One is the anti-incumbency factor, with widespread resentment against the BJP-SS alliance ruling the state, and the other is that, while in 1996 the Congress was badly fragmented, with at least two rebel candidates going against every official candidate, this time the party is facing the polls in a united fashion. Further, the alliance with the Samajwadi Party and the Republican Party of India appears to have consolidated the dalit and Muslim votes behind the Congress.

In Orissa, the Biju Janata Dal-BJP alliance is leading in Phulbani, Dhenkanal and Aska constituencies while the BJP was leading in Deogarh and Keonjhar parliamentary constituencies. The Congress is leading in Behrampore and Koratpur.

In Punjab, Janata Dal's Gujral has been declared elected. The BJP has won the Hoshiapur and Gurudaspur seats. It leads in Amritsar. The Shiromani Akali Dal is in lead in Ludhiana, Battinda, Patiala and Ropar. BJP's Daya Singh Bodhi leads by 2,892 votes in Amritsar and Satya Pal Jain in Chandigarh.

Punjab appears set to consolidate the results of the 1996 election, which was fought by the BJP and the Shiromani Akali Dal in tandem. This time round, the alliance yet again appears set to sweep the polls, with even strong Congress candidates such as former Union minister and six-time winner R L Bhatia trailing to an unknown candidate in Amritsar. Sukhbans Kaur Bhinder, who has held Gurdaspur for six terms and, in that time, converted it into a pocket borough, has lot to matinee idol Khanna.

In Rajasthan, Buta Singh, contesting as an independent, has won the Jalore seat, while the Ganganagar seat went to Congress candidate Shankar Pannu.

In Ajmer, Jaipur, Chittogarh and Bayana, the BJP leads. The Congress is ahead in Banswara, Udaipur, Bhilwara, Barmer, Nagaur, Pali, Tonk, and Churu.

Former Union minister Balram Jakhar (Congress) leads his nearest rival Mahendra Singh Bhati (BJP) by 20,000 votes in Bikaner.

In Sikkim, the ruling Sikkim Democratic Front's candidate is leading by 21,294 votes over his nearest Congress rival.

In Tamil Nadu, Union Finance Minister P Chidambaram has been declared elected from Shivaganaga. The Madras South is swinging the DMK's way. And in Madras Central, Industry Minister Murasoli Maran leads by 5,000 votes.

In Salem, it is an independent who is ahead. The BJP's Jana Krishnamurthy is trailing in Madras South.

The BJP is leading in Coimbatore. And this is where the fall out of the serial blasts of February 14 is directly visible. Coimbatore is the southern regional headquarters of the RSS. It has a very strong pro-BJP leaning, and the serial blasts would appear to have polarised the votes in favour of the BJP-AIADMK alliance -- and mind you, this despite a flat out, no-holds-barred bid by the ruling DMK-TMC alliance to try and take the seat.

The TMC leads in Nagercoil and in Sivakasi. Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam leader V Gopalswamy leads (the MDMK is a member of the AIADMK-BJP alliance). In Wandiwash, the Pattal Makkal Kattchi, a BJP ally, and in Putukottai, the AIADMK are leading. It was held by the DMK earlier. In Tanjavore, the DMK is leading, while the BJPman Rangarajan Kumaramangalam is leading with a slender margin in Trichurapally.

In Nilgiris, TMC's Union minister S R Balasubramanian is trailing behind BJP's M Mathan. Union Transport Minister T G Venkataraman is trailing behind MDMK's Senji Ramachandran by a narrow margin.

In Tripura, the CPI-M leads in Tripura West and Tripura East against Congress rivals.

In Uttar Pradesh, the BJP leads in Almorah, Bareilly, Bilhaur, Tehri Garhwal, Garhwal, Kanpur, Basti, Banda, Bansgoan and Anola.

Maneka Gandhi, contesting as an independent leads in Pilibhitt, is ahead of BSP's Anees Khan.

Samajwadi Party chief Mulayam Singh Yadav is ahead in Sambhal.

In West Bengal, Trinamul Congress leaders Mamata Banerjee and Sudip Banerjee maintained a steady lead in the two Calcutta city constituencies while Communist Party of India (Marxist) veteran Somnath Chatterjee gained a sizeable lead in Bolpur in Birbhum district

The Forward Bloc leads in Cooch Behar. The CPI-M is leading in Malda, Contat, Bolpur and Birbhum.

UNI

Elections '98

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