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Win Chaddha, Sonia and Jayalalitha

I am certain most Indians have never heard of Belmopan. Even those who are aware of it would be surprised to learn that a decision taken in that tiny town halfway across the world could have a fallout on Indian politics in the months to come.

Belmopan, for the benefit of all those unfamiliar with the name, is the capital of Belize, a small nation on the Atlantic coast in central America. It was one of the last remnants of the British Raj. What makes it important to India is the fact that one of the men holding a Belizean passport is a certain Win Chaddha.

Chaddha is a key figure in the Bofors saga. Like so many others whose names appeared in that story, Chaddha left India quite a while ago. (It might be more accurate to say that he was permitted to leave!) When his Indian passport expired, Chaddha managed to get one from Belize. He is residing in Dubai on the strength of this document.

The Indian government has succeeded in getting the Belizean authorities to withdraw their protection. This leaves Chaddha in a hole. He has already tried, and failed, to get Swiss papers. And the United Arab Emirates actively discourages illegal immigrants. (Unlike Jyoti Basu!) Is this the end of the road for a weary Chaddha?

Not if the Congress can manage it! Sonia Gandhi challenged her opponents to come out with the 'truth' of Bofors in the poll campaign; she doesn't appreciate it now that she is being taken at her word. But she is powerless to rein in the investigators as long as the A B Vajpayee ministry is in power.

Up to this point, Sonia Gandhi was prepared to refrain from active measures to topple the government. After all, J Jayalalitha was doing a perfectly splendid job of destroying the ministry's credibility. The Congress president wanted the Vajpayee administration to crumble under the weight of its own contradictions, preferably in February-March 1999, before it gets a second Budget through.

But time is a luxury the Congress president can't afford if Bofors threatens to become an issue again. So the Congress boss spoke over the telephone to the AIADMK chief last week. The two ladies agreed to put aside personal animosity. Jayalalitha likes it as little as Sonia Gandhi when the BJP sticks to principles.

Jayalalitha's major demand for dismissal of the Karunanidhi ministry has been unacceptable to the BJP. Despite being in power in Delhi, AIADMK ministers have been given little leeway to help their supremo.

Sonia Gandhi and her party have no compulsions about kicking out duly elected governments. Karunanidhi has been dismissed twice before -- either by the Congress or at its instigation -- and there is no earthly reason to believe that the party will hesitate to dismiss him a third time. Given Jayalalitha's priorities, it makes more sense to be in the Congress camp.

To woo Jayalalitha, Sonia Gandhi has abandoned the dream to bring back the lost sheep into the fold. I refer to G K Moopanar, P Chidambaram, and the rest of the Tamil Maanila Congress, all of whom Jayalalitha detests. (Please remember that Moopanar broke away from the parent party precisely because P V Narasimha Rao refused to snap ties with Jayalalitha.)

Bringing down a ministry is relatively easy in today's climate. But forming a successor is tougher by orders of magnitude. And actually keeping such a government going would tax anyone's ability. It isn't even certain, of course, that President K R Narayanan would agree to such an arrangement. That in turn confronts both ladies with the spectre of another mid-term poll.

Confronted by the brute reality of the situation, Jayalalitha and Sonia Gandhi draw back from the brink. The AIADMK boss has been hitting out at the BJP-led government for four months. But that is her frustration speaking. 'Jaw-jaw is better than war-war,' was Winston Chruchill's sage dictum, and right now the AIADMK chief is unprepared for war.

However, at times choosing not to make a decision is a decision in itself. The courts shall grind on remorselessly in Madras. Elsewhere, the investigators are getting ready to net the elusive Win Chaddha. If Sonia Gandhi waits too long, the decision will be effectively taken out of her hands.

A sick man in Dubai and a tiny nation in central America. That might sound like much. But between them they could succeed in quite a bit of drama between now and September.

T V R Shenoy