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Six more months of hemming and hawing, and the BJP can bid farewell to power for some time to come!

The winter of 1984-85 was the Congress's finest hour. It swept every state but Andhra Pradesh in the general election, and then won most of the assembly polls two months later. Since then it has been all downhill for India's oldest party.

The BJP, on the other hand, was on a roll. Delhi was a citadel of the party, returning BJP candidates with comfortable majorities in the general elections of 1989, 1991, 1996, and 1998, and the assembly polls of 1993 for good measure. Rajasthan elected BJP ministries in 1990 and 1993. Madhya Pradesh voted for a BJP government in 1990, and gave the majority of its forty Lok Sabha seats to the party in 1996 and 1998. An absolute majority seemed just around the corner.

Today, the BJP's dreams lie in ruins. The recent assembly polls in Delhi, Rajasthan, and Madhya Pradesh saw two-horse races, and the Congress came first. The results from Rajasthan were not much of a surprise, simply repeating the verdict of the Lok Sabha polls in February-March. But can the BJP explain away the massive 15% swing away from itself in just eight months in Delhi and Madhya Pradesh?

India's ruling party cannot disguise the fact that the political initiative has passed into the hands of the Congress. The question today is what Sonia Gandhi proposes to do with the power she now wields.

There are three possibilities. First, the Vajpayee ministry is toppled and a successor takes office. Second, yet another general election comes due because the ministry is toppled but there is no alternative. Third, the thought of mid-term polls scares so many Lok Sabha members that they decide not to rock the boat and permit the current government to continue in office.

There is definitely talk of fresh polls. The prime minister admitted that the possibility couldn't be ruled out given the fluidity of the situation. Kamal Nath, a Congress leader from Madhya Pradesh, went further; polls, he said were inevitable because the fractured mandate of 1998 made it impossible.

He is absolutely correct. In a House of 543, the BJP has just over 180 members and the Congress just over 140. That leaves about 220 members holding the balance of power. Unfortunately for an electorate weary of political brinkmanship, these 220 are divided between 45 different parties, each pursuing goals of its own.

Can Sonia Gandhi form a ministry with the help of some of these non-BJP, non-Congress parties? The Congress has to take on Mulayam Singh Yadav and Laloo Prasad Yadav to regain ground in Bihar and Uttar Pradesh. It has serious problems with the Left in Kerala. And does she really want the AIADMK as an ally after the Supreme Court removed the last hurdles to Jayalalitha's trial?

Of course, some of the people named above would co-operate with the Congress to the extent of toppling the BJP-led ministry. But they will definitely not help the Congress revive itself. And, this is the nub of the matter, nor do they want a general election. Kanshi Ram, president and founder of the Bahujan Samaj Party, was speaking for the smaller parties when he made an honest confession before the last general election: "Instability suits me."

Immediately after the Lok Sabha polls, I wrote that India had inched closer to a two-party system. This was proved in the recent assembly polls, where the erstwhile Third Front was wiped out thanks to polarisation. The message has been received by the 220 members who flourish only as long as the two major national parties are weak and believe, rightly in my opinion, their number will be significantly reduced after another general election.

This leaves the Congress with unpalatable choices: topple one unworkable ministry and lead another, or leave the Vajpayee ministry alone. A mid-term poll to take advantage of revived popular support simply isn't on the cards. Both the Congress and the BJP are divided on the subject of another general election, with strong arguments for and against in both parties. But the smaller groups, however fragmented on other questions, are absolutely clear on this one issue: no fresh polls!

Where does all this leave the BJP? In the immediate future, it must play a waiting game. With an eye on the long-term, however, it cannot afford any more misgovernment. Six more months of hemming and hawing, and the BJP can bid farewell to power for some time to come!

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T V R Shenoy