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The Rediff Special/ K V Bapa Rao

Institutionalised Mendacity over Ghauri is Frightening

I have been watching with increasing dismay, disgust and dread the antics of India's alleged defence establishment in response to Pakistan's successful testing of the Ghauri missile. Not even the crustiest cynic could have predicted the sheer levels of mendacity and self-deception that the people charged with the nation's defence have been exhibiting.

In launching Ghauri, Pakistan achieved a stunning qualitative leap forward in the unrelenting cold-and-hot war she has been waging against India her entire life. The suggestively-named Ghauri adds a powerful one-two punch to the arsenal of that country's military establishment. First, for a national culture steeped in Islamic triumphalism and indoctrinated with Orwellian "two minute hates" against "Hindu" India, the symbolic reincarnation of Mahmud of Ghor, the grand progenitor of what Pakistanis see as the Islamic Pakistani Empire, has got to be a psychological boost of no small magnitude. So much so, that both the ruling and opposition politicians of Pakistan have been falling over each other to claim credit, and the test site has become a shrine of pilgrimage for ordinary Pakistanis.

Second, unlike earlier such psychological boosts which have tended to be rather spurious (remember General Yahya Khan's famously idiotic, "one Muslim Pakistani soldier is the equivalent of ten Hindu Indian soldiers" from 1971), the testing (and inevitable induction) of Ghauri represents a very solid material and strategic foundation for Pakistan's well-deserved confidence. The material aspect is obvious: the missile is quite real.

I'll say more on the strategic aspect below, but first, the Pakistanis should be heartily congratulated for living up to Zulfikar Ali Bhutto's oath, circa 1974, that they will eat grass if need be, but will acquire a nuclear arsenal and delivery systems. They hanged Bhutto, but still held on to his goal with commitment enough to achieve it over the constant objections of their American patrons.

Let us now turn to the response of India's newly-anointed rulers, whom the Western press quaintly describes as Hindu Nationalists, implying, I imagine, that they are fueled by a greater dose of Hindu warrior machismo than the New York Times and Time magazine deem appropriate for India. Well, I wouldn't worry overmuch if I were the Times or Time, or for that matter if I were Islamabad or Beijing. The government's response to its first national security challenge has shown that India, Hindu warriors or no, is far from getting its defence act together and taking it on the road, high seas or open skies or anywhere else. It's worse, really: I have this sneaking suspicion that just about everyone but India's defence pooh-bahs already understands that India doesn't have a real strategy to protect even what's inside her own borders, beyond relying on the forces of inertia and hoping for the best.

Let us examine the following sample utterances from defence spokes-wallahs of all descriptions and levels: (These were all reported in the Indian media during the past couple of weeks. I paraphrase, but not very much.)

"Oh, the missile test probably didn't really happen." (from various alleged expert observers quoted in the press).

"It happened, but they didn't really do it by themselves, they got help (variously) from the Chinese, or North Koreans." (more from the alleged experts and authorities.)

"India's Prithvi missile is capable of reaching entire Pakistan so it is for Pakistan to worry about." (this gem from Defence Minister George Fernandes himself, directly quoted from Rediff).

The first statement is a classic. It shows a complete failure of intelligence, both of the cloak-and-dagger as well as of the grey matter variety. Any defence establishment worth its fat payroll should have tracked developments such as the Ghauri and predicted launch dates and so on. Let us be charitable and concede that even the best of intelligence outfits gets caught napping now and then. Let us even grant that the folks at the defence ministry saw an understandable need to manage what they feared might be public hysteria over the Ghauri launch, with a bit of spin-doctoring if need be.

Still and all, are their prevaricatory skills so pathetic that the best they could come up with was a knee-jerk denial of the event itself, probably knowing full well that they would have to reverse themselves in short order? Just what does this say about the credibility of these alleged experts and authorities?

The second statement basically says that the Pakistanis "cheated" in getting what outside help they could in developing Ghauri, so their accomplishment doesn't really count. I am tempted to ask: so, are India's rulers going to snitch to the teacher on the Pakistanis? (Wait, that's been tried: our rulers wrung their hands at both China and the United States, and both politely told them to stuff it.) Or maybe they'll persuade the Pakistani generals to move to Lucknow so that they can be jailed under Kalyan Singh's law against cheating in exams?

Barring such recourse, I fail to see the significance of Pakistan's exact method of obtaining, testing and deploying missile technology, as long as they have the damned things working and ready to go. Of course, I may be totally off-base; when Mahmud of Ghori, revenant, is speeding towards Bangalore or Thumba, maybe the designated defenders of India's people and property will (rather in the manner of P G Wodehouse's Gussie Fink-Nottle when confronted by the formidable Spode) whisper "North Korea" (or "China" as the case may be) in that great conqueror's ear, and have him slinking back, embarassed. Would be a neat trick if they can pull it off. If not, the idea still wouldn't be a total waste, since the Pakistani generals can get a good laugh out of it, while they are busy blasting India's cities and people.

The third statement, considering that its verbatim source is the Honourable Defence Minister Himself, deserves special analysis in light of the strategic implications of Ghauri. Neither the Honourable D M nor his numerous vocal defence ministry minions have come anywhere close to admitting in public the elementary fact that with Ghauri, Pakistan has, indeed well and truly put one over India in the strategic equation of the subcontinental cold war.

Unlike the grand panjandrums of defence, I didn't stay up nights cramming assorted gurus of strategy like Sun-tzu, Machiavelli, Kautilya and von Clausewitz. (At least, I hope they crammed said gurus.) Hell, I don't even play chess. But even I, and about a million schoolyard scrappers along with me, can figure out the following simple syllogism of strategy:

1. Pakistan likes to play "hit and run" with Indian lives and property, as in, say, Kashmir and Bombay (just about 5 years ago) and probably Coimbatore (about 2 months ago).

2. Till recently, the fear of Prithvi acted as a modest kind of check against Pakistan's little game getting out of hand, since an India pushed to the wall could hit any part of Pakistan and the latter had no way to retaliate short of an all-out war.

3. With Ghauri, Prithvi stands effectively neutralised as a deterrent to Pakistani sponsorship of terrorism in India since Pakistan can now retaliate against any Indian missile attacks by unleashing the Ghauri, quite possibly armed with nuclear warheads, on virtually any Indian city. Because of its more developed industrial economy and superior prospects, India has a lot more to lose in any missile exchange, conventional or nuclear, than Pakistan does. Therefore,

4. any alleged superiority of the Prithvi vis-a-vis the Ghauri is, effectively, irrelevant. And hence,

5. India can confidently look forward to a qualitative increase in Pakistan-supported terrorist campaigns on Indian soil, with no effective way to retaliate short of all-out war.

Oh, and just by the way, with Ghauri's all-India reach, that great pillar of India's strategic doctrine, namely the location of all vital establishments in the South, has just become defunct. But, going by the Honourable Defence Minister's utterances, he has noticed neither this fact nor the distinct possibility of Pakistan becoming emboldened to step up her terrorist warfare against India. But I don't think Shri George or his associates in the defence ministry are really that stupid. The truth is far more unpleasant, and ultimately more troubling.

It is that Shri George (his arrogance no doubt entirely stemming from his long-standing membership in India's ruling class) feels the Indian people (who trusted him and put him in the high office he now holds) are stupider than dirt and can neither figure out for themselves, nor cope with, the reality of a strategic setback that has a direct impact on their daily lives. This is why, he thinks it a perfectly adequate response to, in essence, proclaim, "don't worry, our missile is bigger than theirs."

I have a lot to say on the subject of the deadly mixture of official hubris and incompetence, but for now, I would, in all seriousness and humility, ask Shri George Fernandes this: you and your ministry have handled a serious and obvious strategic threat to the lives and property of the Indian people with a pathetic and transparent mix of casual lies and irrelevancies. You have shown, by implication, that you have no respect at all for the Indian people's intelligence or for their right, as your masters (lest you have forgotten), to receive an honest report on this critical issue. This, we know.

Therefore, when your nascent National Security Council comes up with a strategic defence plan, on exactly what basis should the Indian people believe that you and your staff had actually done their job properly, and that their lives, livelihood, and property are as safe as they can be, from foreign enemies who wield nuclear missiles and are free with their disbursements of RDX? Do the words "accountability" and "credibiliity" have any meaning to you at all?

Errors and oversights (even major ones) can be corrected, though there is obviously a price to pay. But rooted, institutionalised official arrogance, coupled with the complete freedom from any responsibility to answer to the public which pays the government to take care of vital matters like national defence -- that's a different thing entirely. We'll never have any way of knowing, till the damage is actually done, that things are under reasonable control, in competent hands. And that realisation frightens me, every time I think it through.

The chances that Shri George will bother to answer my questions are about the same as that of snowfall in Srikakulam. At least, India is still a free country and I can ask them with impunity. I think.

K V Bapa Rao lives in the US. This is the first of a series of columns he hopes to contribute to Rediff On The NeT.

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