Commentary/Janardan Thakur

'I may be a simple man, but once I start fighting back, they will realise what a combatant I am'

Get ready for mid-term elections, Prime Minister Deve Gowda told his partymen on Monday. This was after he had delivered a fighting speech at the last session of the Janata Dal's two-day camp at Surajkund: 'I may be a simple man, but once I start fighting back, they will realise what a combatant I am.'

There is seemingly no immediate danger to the Deve Gowda government, yet the prime minister knows that the situation could change dramatically if his political guru, Narasimha Rao, is removed from the leadership of the Congress Parliamentary Party, which is a distinct possibility.

The prime minister has been under mounting pressure from some of the constituents of the 13-party United Front. The Left Front has become increasingly critical of the government's policies, Telugu Desam leader Chandrababu Naidu is seething with rage against the central government, Samajwadi Party leader Mulayam Singh Yadav has started hobnobbing with Congress leaders, and even the anti-Deve Gowda faction in the Janata Dal is girding its loins for a possible confrontation.

Laloo Prasad Yadav has escaped being removed from the party presidentship, but not without losing some of his plumes. Much of his bluff and bluster is gone. For the sake of survival, Laloo was being nice to Deve Gowda, at least temporarily. For quite some time now, he had been taking swipes at the prime minister, even to the extent of describing him as Kala Kauaa (black crow).

What incensed him was the change in their respective fortunes; there was a time when Deve Gowda used to run to the Bihar Bhavan to meet Laloo Yadav, and now Laloo had to wait for days on end to get a five minute appointment with the prime minister. This was more than he could take: in rage he would pace up and down his suite at the Bihar Bhavan. But then Laloo must have decided that discretion was the part of valour.

Badly caught in the CBI net in the Rs 10 billion fodder scam, Laloo can hardly afford to antagonise the prime minister at this point of time, or to lose his clout in the Janata Dal.

Those attending the JD jamboree were somewhat surprised to see Laloo Yadav acting almost like a chamcha of Deve Gowda. He was echoing Deve Gowda's words, and had even gone out of his way to say that he would pull up his friend Sitaram Kesri for taking swipes at Deve Gowda. All this must have pleased Deve Gowda, but many were sceptical about how lasting the new Laloo posture would be.

Discerning observers could pick out the ambivalence in his remarks on the prime minister. To a group of supporters, Laloo said he would prefer Deve Gowda to Sitaram Kesri as the prime minister, but then he went on to compare himself to Deve Gowda and said, his tongue firmly in cheek, that though he had been in power for over seven months his children had not gone abroad with him even once.

On the other hand, even the premier's grandchildren had travelled abroad on his very first trip. It was a sensitive point for Deve Gowda. He had been attacked by the CPI-M politburo member, Sitaram Yechuri, for carrying his children and grandchildren with him on his foreign jaunts, and Deve Gowda was trying to defend himself from every platform.

But to return to the prime minister's fears about his government, they are more on account of what Sitaram Kesri might do after Rao loses his CPP leadership. Laloo is very close to Kesri and of late even the defence minister, Mulayam Singh Yadav, has been drawing closer to the Congress president, the conduit being the businessman-turned-politician, Amar Singh.

The anti-BJP axis formed in Uttar Pradesh on the eve of Rajya Sabha poll has raised Mulayam's hopes of being able to form a government in state. Yadav's problem, of course, is that new hopes have also arisen in the heart of Mayawati. So unstable is the political configuration in Uttar Pradesh that all new hopes could wilt any time.

It is not impossible that elections to the state assembly and the Lok Sabha are held together. The urgency in the prime minister's tone stems mainly from his perception of what develop on the Congress front. In the Kesri-Rao tussle, Deve Gowda has clearly been on Rao's side.

Apart from having a better equation with Narasimha Rao, Deve Gowda had rightly or wrongly believed that it would be very difficult for the present CPP to change its leader. His calculation could well have been right, but perhaps he did not take into account the fact that the configurations of the CPP could change with the entry of politicians who had left the Congress at different points of time. That could be the end of Rao. What then?

Deve Gowda and his Man Friday, Chand Mahal Ibrahim, have little doubt about Kesri's gameplan. Ever since he became the Congress president, new hopes are said to have arisen in the heart of the 80-year-old leader. His friends and supporters have been egging him on: Kesriji aap aage badhiye, hum aapke saath hain. But in some corner of his heart, there is perhaps the lurking fear that he did not have the 'prime ministerial material' in him.

To his supporters he has been saying he is too old to be prime minister, that a younger, more dynamic person was required for the job. He embraced Manmohan Singh because he thought the former finance minister's credibility would rub off on him, and if he could not become prime minister himself, Singh would be his man.

The political chess between Rao and Kesri has now entered a decisive phase. Both are considered grandmasters: Rao a virtual Chanakya of our times, and Kesri a champion at backroom operations. The muneemji, as some call Kesri. began as a Rao loyalist, but soon bared his fangs. He drew blood early, demolishing Rao's favourite rooks and bishops. So stunned was Rao for a while that he tried to fudge the game by showing the white flag, as it were.

Many thought it was a great leap forward for Kesri when Rao turned up at his court like any other Congress member of Parliament. It was like the mountain coming to Mohammed, or so some thought. But the meetings were by no means a thaw in the battle. Behind their backs both leaders had their knives out, both were posturing for the big battle to come.

Getting the jitters on the sideline is Prime Minister Deve Gowda.