Raja Sen in Mumbai
With a little over a week to go for the 85th Annual Academy Awards, I thought it'd be fun to put together a formbook of the 9 films in the running for the biggest award of all.
This isn't based on how good the films are (though the accompanying text should indeed make my opinion on each contender unambiguously clear) but on how good their chances look to lift the Best Picture trophy.
Now, who's up for an Oscar wager?
80/1 Les Miserables
No, I'm not just saying it because I loathed Tom Hooper's closeup-heavy film.
Hooper isn't nominated for Best Director, the film has earned very mixed reviews (which means some real stinkers) and, most vitally, Hooper's The King's Speech robbed The Social Network of this Oscar a couple of years ago.
Nope, this one's not happening.
This isn't based on how good the films are (though the accompanying text should indeed make my opinion on each contender unambiguously clear) but on how good their chances look to lift the Best Picture trophy.
Now, who's up for an Oscar wager?
80/1 Les Miserables
No, I'm not just saying it because I loathed Tom Hooper's closeup-heavy film.
Hooper isn't nominated for Best Director, the film has earned very mixed reviews (which means some real stinkers) and, most vitally, Hooper's The King's Speech robbed The Social Network of this Oscar a couple of years ago.
Nope, this one's not happening.
60/1 Django Unchained
Quentin Tarantino's bold and boisterous Django Unchained is unquestionably far better than the rest of these Best Picture nominees, but it isn't an Academy-friendly film, in any way.
A violent Western focussing on the most shameful period of America's past, this is both a long and bloody film (never ideal for Academy audiences to sit through) as well as one that courts controversy and defiantly stays away from being universally palatable.
A violent Western focussing on the most shameful period of America's past, this is both a long and bloody film (never ideal for Academy audiences to sit through) as well as one that courts controversy and defiantly stays away from being universally palatable.
50/1 Silver Linings Playbook
David O Russell is a fine filmmaker and, in Silver Linings Playbook, he assembles a strong cast and gives them much quirk to play with.
There are bits to enjoy in this film, certainly, but it is absolutely the most unremarkable motion picture among all the nominees: a conventional, unambitious project that shows off too much artifice to be completely heartening, even as a romantic comedy.
If Silver Linings Playbook wins Best Picture, expect every jaw in the house to drop. Including the trophy's.
There are bits to enjoy in this film, certainly, but it is absolutely the most unremarkable motion picture among all the nominees: a conventional, unambitious project that shows off too much artifice to be completely heartening, even as a romantic comedy.
If Silver Linings Playbook wins Best Picture, expect every jaw in the house to drop. Including the trophy's.
30/1 Amour
Austrian director Michael Haneke is a cinematic treasure and should be heralded at every step, but Amour -- while exactly the sort of heartbreaking film that will impress juries, especially increasingly old ones -- is unlikely to go the distance.
There is very little excitement about the film's chances, and its best bet is a Best Actress trophy for the lovely Emmanuelle Riva.
There is very little excitement about the film's chances, and its best bet is a Best Actress trophy for the lovely Emmanuelle Riva.
20/1 Life Of Pi
It's hard not to admire Ang Lee, a wonderfully sensitive filmmaker with an incredibly diverse range.
Lee does beautiful things in 3D with this film, most of them involving a majestic tiger, but there's a bit too much heavyhanded preachiness afoot.
It's a helluva spectacle, make no mistake, but it really isn't in contention for the top prize.
Lee does beautiful things in 3D with this film, most of them involving a majestic tiger, but there's a bit too much heavyhanded preachiness afoot.
It's a helluva spectacle, make no mistake, but it really isn't in contention for the top prize.
10/1 Beasts Of The Southern Wild
Benh Zeitlin, on the other hand, has significantly better odds in case of a major upset.
The top three films can virtually taste the trophy but in case jurors can't decide between the contentious choices, Zeitlin's unanimously applauded fantasy could just upset the Lincoln-cart.
Or is it Argo-cart?
The top three films can virtually taste the trophy but in case jurors can't decide between the contentious choices, Zeitlin's unanimously applauded fantasy could just upset the Lincoln-cart.
Or is it Argo-cart?
1/1 Zero Dark Thirty
About 40 days ago, this was looking like Zero Dark Thirty's Oscar to lose.
Zero Dark Thirty was riding on unbelievable buzz, sweeping award shows and making critics drool.
Then the Kathryn Bigelow film ran into controversy (mostly about how it glorifies torture, which it seems to) and lo and behold, it now lags well behind the other two frontrunners.
Also, the Academy awarded Bigelow for Hurt Locker (over fan favourite Avatar) just two years ago; they aren't likely to reward her again already.
Zero Dark Thirty was riding on unbelievable buzz, sweeping award shows and making critics drool.
Then the Kathryn Bigelow film ran into controversy (mostly about how it glorifies torture, which it seems to) and lo and behold, it now lags well behind the other two frontrunners.
Also, the Academy awarded Bigelow for Hurt Locker (over fan favourite Avatar) just two years ago; they aren't likely to reward her again already.
3/5 Lincoln
A month ago, this looked like a shoo-in for Steven Spielberg.
A biopic about the most revered President in American history?
Played by the most heralded actor in English cinema? Come on.
The Lincoln juggernaut's been very strong, and it was a clear favourite for the win, but then the Academy snubbed Ben Affleck by not giving him a Best Director nomination, and since then the wave has gone Argo's way.
A biopic about the most revered President in American history?
Played by the most heralded actor in English cinema? Come on.
The Lincoln juggernaut's been very strong, and it was a clear favourite for the win, but then the Academy snubbed Ben Affleck by not giving him a Best Director nomination, and since then the wave has gone Argo's way.
2/5 Argo
Every award show since the Golden Globes has showered trophies on Ben Affleck for his Argo, including the Director's Guild of America, an award that almost always foreshadows the Oscar winner for the year.
Affleck's been routinely winning Best Director and, even if the Oscars can't give him that anymore, they can make up for it by letting Argo win Best Picture.
It would definitely be the popular winner, and fit right into Affleck's incredible tale from punchline to paragon. Since Django can't win, I'm rooting for Argo.
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