Will 2003 be Bollywood's worst year?

2003 may be a watershed year for the recession-hit Hindi film industry. 

There have been a couple of surprise hits. Tujhe Meri Kasam, starring Ritesh Deshmukh (son of former Maharashtra chief minister Vilasrao Deshmukh), did well in parts of Bihar and Maharashtra. David Dhawan's comedy, Ek Aur Ek Gyarah (Sanjay Dutt, Govinda), also fared decently at the box-office.

But 2003 could go down as Bollywood's worst year.

Reason: April, which usually sees the big releases, has turned out to be a bummer, thanks to the deadlock between Bollywood distributors and producers. Problems erupted between the two when satellite television channels went on a movie rights buying spree from distributors and started airing the latest films on television, sometimes even before they finished their theatrical run.

Four major producers associations in Mumbai -- the Indian Motion Picture Producers Association, Western India Film Producers Association, Association of Motion Pictures and Television Programme Producers and the Producers Guild -- retaliated by withholding new Hindi releases, beginning April 1, for an indefinite period. The associations want a nine-month, post-release gap before Hindi films are aired on satellite channels. They also want distributors to guarantee they will take delivery of prints on time and not withhold money they had agreed to pay on delivery.

Three films -- Yeh Dil (Tusshar Kapoor, Anita), Chota Jadugar (Suraj Balajee, S P Balasubramaniam) and The Hero: Love Story Of A Spy (Sunny Deol, Preity Zinta, Priyanka Chopra) -- have been released after the ban. The first two were released on schedule since they are South Indian productions and their producers are not members of the associations involved in the deadlock. Anil Sharma's The Hero fell under the ambit of the ban. But the film's exorbitant budget necessitated an on-schedule release.

Going by the lukewarm reception to Sharma's Rs 550 million thriller, the industry seems to be in for excruciating times ahead. Just days after its release, the trade is already talking of heavy losses. Says Bihar exhibitor Roshan Singh, "Distributors all over the country have paid huge money to acquire The Hero. Seeing the audience reaction, it would be a miracle if the film breaks even."

The film trade now expects a bleak phase for Bollywood. Producer Suneel Darshan, who was all set to release Andaaz (Akshay Kumar, Priyanka Chopra) this month, thinks this is yet another nail in the coffin. "I am ready to release Andaaz, but I cannot. No filmmaker can afford to sit on his finished product. A day's delay means a sizeable loss."

Ram Gopal Varma has already booked a chain of theatres across the country on May 2 for Bhoot (Ajay Devgan, Urmila Matondkar, Rekha, Fardeen Khan). What if the strike persists? "Then I will have to postpone and reschedule the release," shrugs Varma.

Not every producer can afford to be nonchalant about the delay. A sense of panic prevails especially among smaller filmmakers. Debutante Tigmanshu Dhulia was all set to release Haasil (Jimmy Shergill, Hrishitaa Bhatt) on April 18. He will now have to wait his turn after the strike is over. Sujoy Ghosh's Jhankaar Beats (Rahul Bose, Juhi Chawla, Sanjay Suri, Rinke Khanna) has been postponed indefinitely. "It will probably be released in May if we get the theatres," he says

In anticipation of a quick resolution, filmmakers have already lined up releases for April 25. These include the teenybopper romance Ishq Vishk and Padam Kumar's gangster thriller Supari (Uday Chopra, Nandita Das).

Those in the know believe the deadlock between distributors and producers will continue for the next three weeks.