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Inflation to remain high till year end: Morgan Stanley
Inflation is likely to remain high at near 8 per cent levels by December end because of high government deficit and strong growth in rural wages, says a report by Morgan Stanley.
According to Morgan Stanley, high government deficit and strong growth in rural wages (which is growing at around 20 per cent year-on-year for last three years) are key factors keeping inflation expectations high.
"WPI inflation is likely to remain high in the 8-8.2 per cent range until the quarter ended December 2012 and it is expected to 'moderate' to around 7-7.5 per cent level by quarter ended March 2013," the report said.
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Inflation to remain high till year end: Morgan Stanley
Wholesale price index-based inflation was at 10-month high level of 7.81 per cent in September.
The report said that RBI is 'facing a dilemma on policy action in the current stagflation-type environment'.
"While growth is slowing, inflation remains a challenge," it said.
The Reserve Bank of India will come out with its policy review on October 30. The industry has been demanding a rate cut to boost economic growth.
The macro conditions of the country warrant a delay in policy rate cuts, Morgan Stanley said.
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Inflation to remain high till year end: Morgan Stanley
"We believe that the policy decision to reduce rates in the next monetary policy review on October 30, will be touch-and-go," the report said.
Trade deficit for September widened to $18.08 billion compared to $15.6 billion in previous month.
On a three-month trailing basis, the trade deficit widened to 10.8 per cent of GDP in September as against 9.1 per cent of GDP in August 2012.
Elevated level of trade deficit implies that the current account deficit remained high at around 3.8-4 per cent of GDP for the quarter ended September this year, the report said.
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Inflation to remain high till year end: Morgan Stanley
"The current economic environment, monetary easing is unlikely to help unless it is preceded by adequate fiscal tightening and control of rural wages," the report said.
Inflation has remained above 7 per cent since late 2009.
This is much above the RBI's comfort level of 5-6 per cent.
The RBI has held its short-term lending (repo) rates unchanged at 8 per cent since April 2012. In its policy review on September 17, RBI reduced the cash reserve ratio (CRR) -- the percentage of deposits banks keep with central bank -- by 0.25 per cent to 4.5 per cent.