India to be among top 10 pharma markets globally by 2020

India's pharmaceutical industry is on good growth trajectory and is likely to be among the top 10 global markets in value terms by 2020, according to a CII-PwC report released in Ahmedabad on Monday.

Experts believe that the industry has the potential to grow at an accelerated 15-20 per cent CAGR for the next 10 years to reach between $49 billion to $74 billion in 2020.

"The industry has seen many regulatory interventions over the last one year which will require careful consideration by pharma companies as they plan their future strategies," said Sujay Shetty, executive director, India Pharmaceutical and Life Sciences Industry Leader, PricewaterhousCoopers.

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"The challenge for us is to make sure that we get lot of innovative medicines to our country for untreated clinical needs, as we have enough producers for molecules in the most competitive market," he said, adding industry needs to climb up on innovation graph.

This year, the New Drug Advisory Committee has approved only nine drugs for clinical trials.

According to PwC, emerging markets will be the next major growth drivers for the global pharma industry with more than 40 per cent of incremental growth coming from emerging economies in the next decade.

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As per PwC estimates, the total expenditure on healthcare in these markets is likely to grow from $205 billion to $499 billion by 2020, with most markets expected to grow at double digit rates.

By 2020, the BRIC countries alone are going to account for 33 per cent of world's GDP, that is up 25 per cent from 2009, said PwC.

In 2011, worldwide sales of medicines reached $1.08 trillion with an increase of 7.8 per cent over the previous year.

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It is expected to be worth $1.5 trillion by 2020, the report titled 'Indian Pharma Inc.-Gearing up for the next level of growth' said.

The per capita spend on healthcare in US is $8,000 compared to $54 per head in India, PwC said.

With the critical market of US driving the growth, $148 billion worth of patent expiries are expected between 2012 and 2018, it added.

The medical technology sector, which plays a vital role in the delivery of healthcare services in India was pegged at $2.75 billion in 2008.

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It is expected to reach $14 billion in 2020 at a CAGR of around 15 per cent, according to industry analysts and PwC estimates.

Over the past year, there have been interventions at regulatory level, which shall require careful considerations.

There are changes being discussed in the revised proposal, called the Draft National Pharmaceutical Pricing Policy 2011, which seeks to increase price control by expanding the span of control from 74 to 348 drugs in the National List of Essential Medicines, including 654 formulations.