Silver investors strike gold in crisis

In the last couple of months, silver prices have shown a sharp rise.

The price has increased from Rs 43,080 a kilogram to Rs 55,820, a rise of Rs 12,740, or 30 per cent (from January 27), since the Jasmine Revolution started.

At the same time, gold and equities have not performed so well. Gold, for example, has returned only 8 per cent.

According to experts, the white metal has benefited greatly due to the dual use of the commodity -- as a precious metal and for industrial purposes.

"Of late, buying interest in the metal has increased as there are expectations that demand from Japan, especially the electronics industry, will be on the rise after the crisis," said Ajay Kedia of Kedia commodities.

Internationally, silver was trading at $37.33 an ounce. Since January 27, it has risen 38 per cent.

The returns in India have been lower due to the strengthening of the rupee.

Commodity experts said investors in precious metals should take the rupee-dollar movements into consideration when investing in gold, silver and others.

Typically, silver follows gold and copper because while the former is a precious metal, the latter is a leader in industrial commodities. And silver has both these elements.

"The Jasmine Revolution triggered the rise in silver price initially.

"Then, some foreign hedge funds swung into action because they had short positions. Now, the expected demand from Japan is holding it strong," added Kedia.

Japan being the hub for electronic items, it is expected to purchase silver to increase its production after the crisis.

Of the total industrial use of silver, the electronic space accounts for more than 75 per cent.

However, some feel silver may not be able to continue the good run in the near future. Prithiviraj Kothari, president of Bombay Bullion Association said, "Silver will see a correction in the near term and may reach Rs 53,000 a kg. But in the next two or three years, it has a potential to reach Rs 100,000."

Echoing similar view, Praveen Singh, a research analyst with Sharekhan Commodities said, "Gold is likely to touch $1,500 an ounce in the near term, and silver is expected to hit $50 an ounce in year or two. But one should be careful while buying (silver) at these levels."

Gold increased its sheen on safe haven buying due to unrest in Libya coupled with earthquake and tsunami in Japan.

Also, the euro zone debt crisis caused the metal to rise.

Analysts are a little vary about the price movement of the white metal in short term, but they expect demand to pick up in long term.

Currently, silver price in domestic futures market are cheaper than spot prices. In the last couple of months, the futures on MCX are quoted at discount around Rs 1,000 a kg or so to the spot prices.

Spot prices are near to the cost of import (landed cost).

Traders, however, don't expect physical market demand in India before Akshaya Tritiya, which is a couple of months away.