The Indian economic growth rate could slip from 9 per cent to as low as 6 per cent during the current fiscal on account of the adverse fallout of the global financial meltdown on the country, said former Chief Economic Advisor Shankar Acharya on Friday.
"It would be lucky if we get 6 per cent (growth rate) this year," he said while describing the 7.1 per cent gross domestic product growth rate projection of the Research and Information System for Developing Countries as 'very optimistic'.
Acharya probably came up with probably the most pessimistic growth projection at a mid-year review of the Indian economy organised by the India International Centre in New Delhi.
RIS director-general Nagesh Kumar in his presentation projected an economic growth rate of 7.1 per cent for the current fiscal, even as he pitched for a fiscal stimulus of $50 billion to neutralise the impact of the global slowdown on the Indian economy.
The Reserve Bank of India in its mid-year review of the credit policy, projected an economic growth rate of 7 to 7.5 per cent, while the chairman of the Prime Minister's Economic Advisory Council, Suresh Tendulkar, recently said the economy could grow by about 7 per cent, lower than the earlier projection of 7.7 per cent.
The International Monetary Fund has predicted a 7.8 per cent growth rate for India during the current year, which several experts at the mid-year review of the economy described as 'motivated' to sub-serve the interests of the developed nations.
Elaborating on the 7.1 per cent GDP growth rate projection for 2008-09, RIS chief Nagesh Kumar said following the good monsoon the agricultural sector could register a growth rate of 3 per cent, though it would be lower than the 4.5
per cent in the previous fiscal.
Services sector growth during 2008-09, he said, was likely to decline to 9.5 per cent from 10.7 per cent on account of the economic slowdown, especially in the US and Europe.
Industry will have the bear the major brunt of the slowdown, he said, adding the industrial output growth rate was likely to slip to 5 per cent from 8.1 per cent in the previous fiscal.
Nagesh Kumar further said that by the middle of 2009-10, India would come out of the downturn mainly on account of factors like declining prices of crude in the international market, easy liquidity policy being followed by the RBI, and the release of funds due to the implementation of the Sixth Pay Commission award.
The long-term outlook for the economy 'remains robust', he said, adding, inflation, which has already peaked, was likely to come down to 6-7 per cent by the end of the current fiscal.
However, on the negative side, he said, government finances would remain under pressure because of rapid growth in the off-budget expenditure of the union.
Similarly, he said, the trade deficit would soar to $140 billion from $90 billion in the previous year, while the current account deficit would double to 3 per cent of GDP.
The rising trade deficit, he added, could become an issue in the days to come with export slowing down and income from services tapering off.
© Copyright 2024 PTI. All rights reserved. Republication or redistribution of PTI content, including by framing or similar means, is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent.
