The stock market barometer the Sensex is set to touch 19,000-mark by June from the present 17,500 levels, in spite of the decline in the overall business confidence, says a JP Morgan survey.
Among the eight cities where the survey was carried out, the investors in the nation's financial capital are the most optimistic as they expect the bellwether Sensex to trade between 20,000 and 21,000 in June, said the survey.
JP Morgan, however, said the Sensex range expected for June is similar to the levels indicated by the financial community for March 2010, as indicated in its investment confidence index for September 2009.
The survey found as many as 93 per cent of financial advisers and 83 per cent of retail investors expect the Sensex to rise to 18,000-19,000 in June. The asset management firm said, meanwhile, the signs of economic recovery, which resulted in "widespread optimism" last September, has now abated to "measured optimism" amongst the investment community. It said the current corporate confidence has hit an all-time low since the ICI launch in July 2009.
Even among advisers, while banks continue to be the most confident, the level has fallen well below the '150' benchmark level, it the company said. "The results indicate that a range of macroeconomic factors have affected both the corporates as well the advisors, while retail investors continue to be optimistic," JP Morgan Asset Management chief executive Christopher Spelman said.
"While confidence across all indicators remains positive, the confidence levels are lower than those seen in September 2009," he said. "The investor confidence index declined 5.2 points to 141.2 in February 2010, driven by concerns on the fallout of the financial crisis is still incomplete," ValueNotes managing director Arun Jethmalani said, adding the three underlying indices, the investor confidence index is the highest compared to corporate and advisor indices.
"Interestingly, retail investor confidence on the global and domestic economic situation continues to improve supported by a bullish outlook for the Sensex." The investor confidence index captures the confidence of retail investors, corporate investors and financial advisors on the domestic economic and investment environment.
The Investor Confidence Index, published jointly by JP Morgan and ValueNotes, was conducted in February across Mumbai, Delhi/NCR, Kolkata, Chennai, Ahmedabad, Bangalore, Hyderabad and Pune. The survey focused on business and investment outlook for the following six months.
