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Wheat production during the current season is expected to be better than last year provided the weather remains favourable over the next few weeks, said senior industry executives.
The weather had turned uncharacteristically hot in the latter half of last month, but owing to strong winds, the chill has returned in the last few days.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD), in its latest update, said strong surface winds (25-35 to 45 km per hour) are likely over the plains of northwest India, including Delhi, during the next 24 hours.
Also, there may be scattered light-to-moderate rain or snowfall over Jammu and Kashmir, Ladakh and Himachal Pradesh during March 9-11.
“This (snowfall in the hills) should have an impact on the plains as well,” an official said.
According to scientists, if the total average temperature during a full day (24 hours) is around 15-16 degrees Celsius, it is ideal for the wheat crop.
Some parts of Northern India, including states such as Haryana, saw unseasonal rain and hailstorm during the last few days that has damaged the standing crop in some parts.
The extent of loss is still being assessed. The state government has ordered the opening of a damage assessment portal to enable farmers file their claims and damage details.
Most experts and representatives from the flour milling industry — who had gathered for an annual event earlier this week — felt that production of wheat in the 2025-26 marketing season could be around 110 million tonnes.
If so, it would be up from around 106 million tonnes this year.
The crop condition in major wheat growing states, namely Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan and Gujarat, has been good.
The prices, too, are ruling above the minimum support price (MSP), though there has been softening in the last few days due to increased arrivals.
Data sourced from the agmarknet.gov.in shows that in Indore mandi (Madhya Pradesh), wheat was selling at close to Rs 2,700 per quintal on March 5.
This was higher than the MSP of Rs 2,425. The price was around Rs 2,946 per quintal around March 1, which means that rates have softened under pressure from heavy arrivals.
Among major rabi crops, chana was selling at around Rs 5,601 per quintal, which was closer to the MSP of Rs 5,650 per quintal.
However, mustard seed was selling lower than the MSP of Rs 5,950 per quintal in several mandis of Rajasthan.
This is a cause for concern and has reignited calls for hiking the import duty on edible oils.
In September last year, the Centre raised the effective import duty on crude palm, soya, and sunflower oil from 12.5 per cent to 32.5 per cent.
The effective import duty on refined oils was raised from 13.75 per cent to 35.75 per cent.
A few weeks ago, Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan said the Centre will make necessary changes in the import and export policies to protect the interests of farmers and domestic industries.
