The monsoon forecast update issued by the India Meteorological Department on Tuesday indicates improved chances of a 100 per cent normal and evenly distributed rainfall over the country as a whole. The rainfall in the agriculturally crucial month of July is predicted to be 98 per cent of the long-period average of 31 cm.
Revealing this, IMD director general SK Srivastava said the current break in the southwest monsoon was likely to end by Saturday or Sunday, creating conditions for the resumption of rains and further advance of the monsoon into areas not covered so far.
Delhi could also expect rains from Saturday or Sunday, he said.
The northern limit of the monsoon has remained static since June 18. By then, it had covered the entire peninsula, Maharashtra, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Bihar, most parts of Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat and some parts of Uttar Pradesh.
For the first time, the IMD issued region-specific rainfall forecasts for four homogeneous zones. Earlier, it had divided the country into three regions.
According to this forecast, the total rainfall in the season (June to September) will be 103 per cent of the normal in the northwest as well central region while it will be 97 per cent in the peninsular region and 96
"So the distribution of the south-west monsoon rainfall in different parts of the country will be between 96 and 103 per cent, which is a fairly uniform spread," Srivastava said.
Regarding the performance of the monsoon so far, he said the overall rainfall in the country was 21 per cent above normal till June 23 when the monsoon activity became sluggish. Though precise data has not been compiled for the whole of June yet, it will likely be about 10 per cent above normal.
Only five of the total 36 meteorological subdivisions have recorded deficient rainfall. However, the paucity is significant only in Telangana, Rayalseema and Marathwada. On the other hand, the parts of Karnataka and Kerala that had remained rain-deficient last year had already received copious showers, he pointed out.
Talking about the El Nino phenomenon which normally affected the monsoon adversely, Srivastava said the indication so far was that it would remain neutral for the next 3-4 months. This was despite the central Pacific Ocean displaying some tendency of slight warming since April.
