A series of surveys commissioned by the Bharatiya Janata Party and conducted by Rashtriya Swayamsewak Sangh-affiliated organisations has pointed out that the Hindutva forces are in desperate need of allies in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh to sail through in the Assembly elections.
While the BJP has reconciled to its weak position in Delhi, the party's debilitating position in Rajasthan is also a cause of worry for the central party leadership.
The preliminary poll-surveys commissioned by the BJP cited various reasons for the grim future scenario for the Hindutva forces.
In Madhya Pradesh, these surveys have clarified that the BJP would lose substantial ground if Chief Minister Digvijay Singh makes a tactical alliance with the Bahujan Samaj Party, which has a sizable presence in the Bundelkhand and Gwalior regions.
Former Uttar Pardesh chief minister Mayawati's programmes in the state on the eve of elections may turn the balance in favour of the Congress.
Even in the Congress circles, the move by party president Sonia Gandhi to cozy up to Mayawati is seen as a politically shrewd step to outwit the BJP before the Assembly elections.
That the Congress and the BJP are the closest rival in the state politics is a crucial factor that makes the BSP an important balancing force.
Though the surveys pointed out that the popular mood in the state favoured the BJP as of now, the possibility of bitter infighting at the time of ticket distribution would also damage the party's prospects, those conducted the survey say.
Even Uma Bharti who is projected as the party's chief ministerial; candidate is learnt to have expressed her fear that the party would face serious infighting.
This was precisely the reason for Bharti to insist on declaring the names of candidates much before the polls. Her request was however turned down by the party's central leadership.
Sources in the BJP admit that apart from infighting, the poll surveys advised the BJP leadership to forge an alliance with the BSP before it is too late.
That the BJP is keeping this option open is evident by the fact that deputy Prime Minister L K Advani visited an ailing BSP supremo Kanshi Ram on Saturday.
If the BSP is expected to spoil the BJP's chance in Madhya Pradesh, Sharad Pawar's nationalist congress party is gradually eroding the Hindutva forces' support base.
After former congress veteran VC Shukla joined the NCP, the party has gained the stature of a regional outfit and attracted many sub-regional leaders.
Obviously, the NCP's emergence as a powerful force in the newly-formed state will create a scenario where the electoral contest would be three-cornered, one of the surveys conducted to give inputs for the party leadership pointed out.
A former BJP general secretary admitted that going by the survey's findings, it is evident that the NCP would play the crucial role in formation of the next government in Chhattisgarh.
What appears to have struck the BJP in Rajasthan is the "flippant image" of the party's state unit leadership and good monsoon, said BJP leaders entrusted the job of monitoring the scenario in the state.
With a stalwart like Bhairon Singh Shekhawat leaving the state, there is a great deal of confusion within the party's state unit, even senior BJP leaders admit.
Vasundhara Raje who is projected as the BJP's chief ministerial candidate is finding it difficult to fill the place vacated by Shekhawat whose tall stature and shrewd politics combined to consolidate the BJP's position in the state.
The fact that there is a feel-good factor after good monsoon is working to the detriment of the BJP which has been raising the issue of inept administration by the Ashok Gehlot government.
The party leadership is also worried over the fact that a hostile BSP may adversely impact the BJP's prospects in certain tribal areas and constituencies dominated by the scheduled castes.
