Near normal rainfall paves way for optimism

The fear of a possible drought this year, that persisted till almost the end of June, has now given way to cautious optimism about not only a near normal monsoon rainfall but also a near normal kharif harvest. The deficiency in the cumulative monsoon rainfall in whole country, which was as much as 46 per cent on June 30, has shrunk to mere 32 per cent by July 13.

The crop sowing situation has consequently improved with sowing operations off to a brisk start throughout the country after the revival of the monsoon since the beginning of July. The kharif sowing data collected by the agriculture ministry from states has indicated that the area planed under rice and pulses has almost doubled in the week between July 3 and July 10 and under coarse cereals and cotton surged by over 150 per cent during that period. The oilseed crops were also planted on an additional 58 per cent area in one week.

However, the worries over the precariously low water levels in the major reservoirs still endure, though the refilling of most dams has begun. The concern is more about hydel power production than irrigation, as most hydro-power stations, barring the one at Bhakra, are running at less than 40 per cent plant load factor. The hydro power generation in the country had dropped in June by 9.31 per cent.

According to the Central Water Commission, the total water stock in the country's 81 major reservoirs was merely 16 billion cubic metres on July 9, against their total combined live stage capacity of 151.7 BCM.

This year's water storage is less than half of the normal storage of 32.9 BCM on this date and compares even more poorly with the last year's corresponding storage figure of 37.3 BCM. However, with pick up in rainfall and water inflows in most reservoirs during last few days, the situation is expected to start improving now.

The prices of most agri commodities, except edible oils, which had begun hardening due to delayed rains, can be expected to react to the improved rainfall scenario. However, the prices of pulses may not drop much because the international prices are ruling high due to limited supplies. Nearly half of the country's requirement of pulses is met through imports.

Edible oil prices will, however, remain subdued because of excessive imports in recent weeks due to low international prices. The India Meteorological Department continues to stand by its updated long range monsoon prediction of 93 per cent of normal rainfall in the 2009 monsoon season (June to September). It is also confident that the rainfall during the agriculturally crucial month of July will be near normal (around 93 per cent of the long period average) as forecast by it earlier.

However, the north-west region may face a rainfall deficiency of nearly 19 per cent during this month. This region reported a rainfall deficiency of 44 per cent on July 13, down 6 per cent from 50 per cent on July 9.

The rainfall deficiency in some other regions has reduced sharply since the beginning of July. It has shrunk from 55 per cent to 30 per cent in the central India and from 29 per cent to 16 per cent in the south peninsula. The north-east has continued to report 38 per cent rainfall deficiency during this period.

Agricultural pundits are not too worried over the below normal rainfall in the north-west as this key foodgrain bowl of the country has nearly 90 per cent crop land under assured irrigation. Since over 55 per cent of this area is irrigated by groundwater through tubewells, the low water levels in the reservoir in this region is also not a matter of major concern for agriculture. The crop sowing, including that of paddy and cotton, is reported to have progressed normally in this region.

The monsoon situation and its consequences for different sectors of economy was reviewed in a high-level meeting chaired by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh on July 12 in which the IMD had made a detailed presentation on the subject. A confident agriculture minister Sharad Pawar said after the meeting, "If the prediction of good rainfall during this week is correct, I can definitely say that we are out of trouble."