This year, the southwest monsoon in India is expected to be normal, at about 100 per cent of the long period average (LPA), according to a senior government official.He added on an average, India received about 89 centimetres of rainfall (LPA) during the four-month southwest monsoon season starting June. This year, the rainfall would either be equal to or higher than this.
It is expected the India Meteorological Department would release its official forecast for the 2013 southwest monsoon later this week. “We feel it should be about 100 per cent of the LPA,” the official said.
Monsoon rains at 96-104 per cent of the LPA are considered normal, according to the meteorological department. While 105-110 per cent of the LPA is considered above-normal, more than 110 per cent is considered excess.
Rains between 90 and 94 per cent of the LPA are considered below-normal; less than 90 per cent of the LPA signifies a drought.
Last week, the South Asian Climate Outlook Forum had said this year, the southwest monsoon in the entire South Asian region was likely to be normal, with a strong possibility of rains exceeding the normal range.
Sascof is a sub-regional body of the World Meteorological Organization, devoted to monsoon predictions, etc. Members of the forum include Bangladesh, Bhutan, Afghanistan, Maldives, Myanmar, Nepal, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and India.
The forum held its fourth annual meeting in Kathmandu on April 18 and 19.
The monsoon, a key factor in determining how the Indian economy fares this financial year, was less than normal in 2012. Last year, it began on a brisk note, but lost momentum mid-way