The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey released recently revealed that the third quarter hiring intentions among employers is expected to be extremely robust in India.
Of the 25 countries and territories surveyed globally this quarter, the outlook is strongest in India with an overall Net Employment Outlook of +43 per cent, followed by Hong Kong at +27 per cent and Japan at +24 per cent.
This is the strongest positive Net Employment Outlook recorded since the start of the survey in India in June 2005. The Net Employment Outlook demonstrates an increase of 3 percentage points over the previous quarter and 9 percentage points on a year-over-year basis.
Of the 4,550 employers surveyed, 46 per cent expected their staff levels to increase while only 3 per cent expected a decrease in their staff levels.
With 41 per cent employers expecting no change and the remaining 10 per cent unsure of their hiring plans, Indian employers showed great optimism about hiring over the next quarter.
The Net Employment Outlook is derived by taking the percentage of employers anticipating total employment to increase and subtracting from this, the percentage expecting to see a decrease in employment at their location in the next quarter.
Commenting on the survey, Soumen Basu, executive chairman, Manpower India, said, "Indian employers are again forecasting the strongest hiring plans of the 25 countries and territories surveyed this quarter, which is reflective of the incremental growth visible across sectors in the country over the past year. In fact, the year-over-year increase in the Net Employment Outlook in the Transport & Utilities sector is a clear indication of the enormous thrust being put forth towards development and infrastructure in the country."
The Net Employment Outlook for the Services sector has witnessed a bullish +50 per cent, the strongest recorded Net Employment Outlook reported in any sector in India since the establishment of the survey in 2005. This represents an 8 percentage point increase quarter-over-quarter and a 6 percentage point increase year-over-year.
The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey conducted in India includes employers in seven industry sectors, namely finance/insurance/real estate; manufacturing; mining and construction; public administration and education; services; transportation and utilities; wholesale and retail trade.
Key Sector hiring intentions: Hiring sentiments are very positive across all industries with five out of the seven industry sectors revealing an increase in hiring activity as compared to the previous quarter. Services sector employers are most optimistic with a bullish Net Employment Outlook of + 50 per cent closely followed by mining and construction at +49 per cent.
The transportation and utilities sector has seen a fall of 9 percentage points from the previous quarter, reporting an Outlook of +37 per cent.
Sector Trends: Quarter-on-Quarter -- Employers in all the industry sectors have mainlined their robust hiring plans either at par or more positive than the second quarter. Mining and construction at +49 per cent and services sector + 50 per cent have recorded the most significant quarter-over-quarter increase of 9 percentage points and 8 percentage points, respectively.
The transport and utilities sector has shown a decrease of 9 percentage points quarter-over-quarter. Finance insurance and real estate sector at +40 per cent has shown an increase of 1 percentage point quarter-over-quarter, while the hiring intentions of the manufacturing sector at +40 per cent remain unchanged from the previous quarter.
In the public administration and education sector, the net employment outlook reported by employers has increased by 6 percentage points while the wholesale trade and retail trade sector has increased by 4 percentage points. The Outlook for these sectors stands at +37 per cent each.
Year-over-Year: Since the survey was launched last year, there have been significant developments in the hiring intentions among employers in India. Six out of seven industry sectors have indicated an increase in their hiring intentions, while only finance insurance and real estate sector has shown a 1 percentage point decrease.
The 20 percentage point increase in the transport and utilities sector year-over-year, followed by the wholesale trade and retail trade sector having an increase of 16 percentage points are positive indicators of growth in these sectors.
The mining and construction sector sees a considerable 9 percentage point increase over the previous year; while employers in the manufacturing and the services sectors both report a 6 percentage point increase year-over-year.
The public administration and education sector presents a 3 percentage point increase in Outlook year-over-year.
Elaborating on the completion of a year of the survey in India, Basu said, "It is the 1st anniversary of the Manpower Employment Outlook Survey in India and we are encouraged with the response this survey has had from the industry and employers alike. Since its launch in India, the survey has reflected a consistent pattern in hiring from employers. Although there have been quarter on quarter variables, the Net Employment Outlook at the end of the first year has been positive and also indicates an optimistic outlook towards future employment in the country".
Regional Trends: The hiring trends among employers look bright in all the four regions, those in the North are the most optimistic with a Net Employment Outlook at +49 per cent, followed closely by East and South at +42 per cent. West has reported a 2 percentage point increase in the NEO quarter-over-quarter, but remains comparatively weaker at +41 per cenr.
South is the only region which experienced a quarter-over-quarter drop in Outlook by 4 percentage points. From a year-over-year basis, the West shows an increase of only 2 percentage points, which could be attributed to the fact that the western region represents a more mature market as compared to the South and East, which are the emerging hubs for Manufacturing and Services sectors.
East has the strongest year-over-year increase of +17 percentage points, closely followed by North with a +13 percentage point increase. The South looks reasonably buoyant with an increase of +5 percentage points.
Global Results: The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey revealed that third-quarter hiring is expected to be positive in 23 of 25 countries and territories surveyed, with employers in India, Japan, Hong Kong, Ireland and Belgium reporting their most optimistic hiring plans to date, based on seasonally adjusted data. Meanwhile, the labor market continues to cool in China with employers reporting their weakest hiring plans since the survey began there.
The strongest third-quarter hiring prospects reported globally were in India, Hong Kong, Japan, Taiwan and the United States with only German employers reporting a negative hiring outlook for the quarter ahead. This quarter also marks the first time the survey has been conducted with employers across Costa Rica, where employment prospects are among the strongest.
Of the eight countries and territories included in the survey across Asia Pacific, adjusted data reveals hiring activity is expected to be strongest in India, Hong Kong and Japan -- all at record levels of optimism -- while the weakest hiring in the region is anticipated in China and Singapore. The survey results have weakened from the second quarter in five of the eight countries, but half expect to hire more compared to this time last year.
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