Information, communication and entertainment have given way to the new ICE, he says, adding that a steady revival of the job market in these sectors has prompted this change.
Suresh should know. As managing director of Stanton Chase, one of India's leading human resource consultancy firm, he is currently handling around 12 C-suite (top-tier executives) assignments a month against a third of that number just a couple of months ago. Suresh recently closed C-suite recruitments for infrastructure firms like Gammon India and Kalpataru.
That should be great news for India's headhunting industry, whose revenues went down by over 50 per cent in the last financial year due to the slowdown in hiring. In terms of business enquiries, business was down around 70 per cent just a couple of months ago.
But that's changing fast. "The last two months have been good. We are coming back to the level that we recorded in the first half of 2008-09. The current run rate has picked up as much as 50 per cent," Suresh says.
The new ICE bosses agree. L&T Power MD & CEO Ravi Uppal says the fizz is back in the power sector. He sees power contributing almost a quarter of L&T's expected revenues of around Rs 100,000 crore (Rs 1 trillion) in the next five years. The power business now accounts for 16 per cent of L&T's revenues of Rs 40,000 crore (Rs 400 billion).
Uppal is planning to ramp up manpower at Vadodara's Knowledge City from 2,000 now to 10,000.
So, the seven-month lull in the job market is seeing the beginning of its end. For example, the monthly job index data provided by Naukri.com-promoted Info Edge have been showing a steady recovery.
Though the index went down 3.6 per cent in August compared to the previous month, Info Edge CEO Sanjeev Bikhchandani says that's because August had a lot of holidays. "However, September looks good so far and if the trend continues, we could call it a recovery," he says.
One sure sign - some employers call it irrational exuberance - of the job market picking up is that expectations of candidates called in for interviews have also gone up.
Arun DasMahapatra, Partner in charge-India for Heidrick and Struggles, a leading recruitment firm, says against an increase of around 15 per cent in their pay package a few months ago, candidates are now looking at an increase of almost 30 per cent.
Manufacturing and engineering industries are leading the pack.
For example, Toyota Kirloskar Motors, which will launch its compact car by December 2010, plans to hire around 2,000 employees over the next one-and-a-half years. Even Maruti Suzuki, which is establishing a new research and development division at Rohtak on a 700-acre land, plans to ramp up the number of engineers to 1,000 in phases. Consumer durables major LG will hire 2,200 people this year.
Banking & insurance along with education are the other new recruiters in town. While State Bank of India plans to hire over 20,000 people, the insurance sector is adding jobs at a rapid clip and is planning to add over 9,000 employees by the end of the financial year.
According to the recent employment outlook survey by global staffing services firm Manpower Inc., Indian employers will hire 25 per cent of the people who apply for jobs in the fourth quarter, up from a net employment outlook of 6 per cent in the previous quarter. The survey globally polled 72,000 employers in 35 countries.
According to the survey, in terms of hiring optimism, India is followed by Brazil (21 per cent), Colombia (13 per cent), Peru (9 per cent), China (8 per cent) and Australia (7 per cent). Employers will be cautious and will hire marginally in the third quarter but the fourth quarter is when they will begin hiring across sectors, the survey says.
"Indian employers have absorbed the layoffs and are telling us they will being hiring again at a conservative pace, but most intend to keep their workforces intact through the end of the year," says Manpower India's Managing Director Naresh Malhan.
"We are also seeing accelerating hiring plans in India's mining and construction sector, thanks to government efforts to support infrastructure projects," Malhan adds.
Some other new job avenues have also opened up. For example, while Bank of America Merrill Lynch is boosting its commodity staff in Asia (including India) to increase trading revenues, Citigroup wants "new blood" for its Asian team after metal prices started surging.
But many headhunters say it may too early to conclude that the job boom seen in 2007 is almost back. The reality is that while the job market in India is showing signs of a distinct improvement, a major part of India Inc is still mainly involved in replacement hiring, and that too for critical talent. The overall mood is still hugely cautious and the thrust largely remains making employees do more with less.
Shiv Agarwal, CEO, ABC Consultants, says "People are overwriting the fact that India is not impacted by the downturn. Employment numbers are a direct barometer of the economy. Closures have dipped over 20 per cent and salaries have not seen a revision in the past few months."
Take ICICI Bank, one of the country's largest recruiters earlier. Last year, the country's largest private sector bank reduced its manpower to 34,000 from around 38,000, mainly through retirements and natural attrition. Though business has improved substantially, the bank intends to keep its overall employee base at the same level.
Or consider the retail sector, one of the country's largest employers a couple of years ago. The sector downsized heavily when the slowdown took place. Now that some of the retail chains have reported improved numbers, they were expected to start recruiting again. The reality, however, is that few of them are talking about re-opening the recruitment tap.
A monthly consumer confidence survey by Boston Analytics captures the mood. While the sentiment about the nation's unemployment continues to be pessimistic, there has been some improvement in "the level of pessimism" in the last month.
In the June survey, about 24 per cent of respondents observed a decrease in unemployment over the last 12 months compared to 21 per cent in the May survey. On expectations, about 22 per cent of respondents felt that unemployment will decrease in the next 12 months compared to 19 per cent in the May survey.
An HR consultant probably sums up the mood best when he says it's a relief that no employer is talking about pink slips anymore. Some are recruiting in large numbers while others are in wait- and-watch mode. That just about sums up India's jobs story.
