'Rainfall does not appear to have a statistically significant impact on foodgrain production since the last few years, which contrasts with the traditional view of India's heavy reliance on monsoon rains for agriculture.'
Is India's foodgrain production increasingly getting decoupled from rainfall performance?
Well, the common understanding is that poor annual rainfall has a negative impact on the output of foodgrains.
However, a recent regression analysis for the period between 2012-2013 and 2022-2023 shows that the correlation between rainfall and foodgrain production is only 'moderately positive'.
But the correlation is 'strongly positive' when it comes to prices, electricity and fertiliser availability, and irrigation coverage.
Warehousing capacity and foodgrain production show a 'weak correlation'.
In other words, the analysis done by the research wing of industry chamber PHDCCI seems to suggest that India's foodgrain production is increasingly getting influenced by factors such as prices, electricity consumption, warehousing capacity, and rise in gross irrigated area, and less from rainfall.
The analysis was released in a report titled India's Agricultural Transformation: From Food Scarcity to Surplus.
'Rainfall does not appear to have a statistically significant impact on foodgrain production since the last few years, which contrasts with the traditional view of India's heavy reliance on monsoon rains for agriculture,' the study said.
At 10 per cent 'significance level', the regression analysis shows significant correlation between WPI-food articles (for analysing the impact of prices on production), electricity consumption, warehousing capacity and gross irrigated area with foodgrain production.
Rainfall does not have statistically significant impact on output.
As per the authors, annual rainfall (this includes monsoon months) is tabulated from the January-December period for the regression analysis while all other variables, including foodgrain production, electricity consumption, WPI-food articles, etc, are calculated on a financial year basis.
The study suggested a host of policy measures, including science-led farming, increased private sector engagement, and a liberalised market as being essential to face today's challenges in agriculture.
It also estimated that the market size of India's food processing sector is estimated to more than double to $700 billion in 2030 from $307 billion in 2023, driven by growing demand for processed products.
The sector's size is further expected to rise to $1,100 billion by 2035, $1,500 billion by 2040, $1,900 billion by 2040, and $2,150 billion by 2047, the study said.
In a statement, PHDCCI said India's agriculture and allied sector has been growing strongly.
From 2013-2014 to 2023-2024, the sector maintained an average growth rate of 3.9 per cent, emphasising its steady contribution to the nation's economy.
Feature Presentation: Aslam Hunani/Rediff.com
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