India to grow at 5-year high of 7.6% in 2015-16

India said its economy grew 7.3 per cent in the October-December quarter.

The Indian economy will grow at a 5-year high of 7.6 per cent in the fiscal ending March, overtaking a slowing China, on the back of improvement in manufacturing and farm sectors.

Gross domestic product (GDP) will expand by 7.6 per cent in 2015-16 compared with 7.2 per cent a year earlier, according to the Central Statistics Office (CSO). The previous high at 8.9 per cent was recorded in 2010-11.

China grew 6.9 per cent in 2015 while Russia contracted 3.7 per cent. Brazil is forecast to shrink 3.7 per cent.

However, India's GDP growth slowed to 7.3 per cent in October-December, from the revised 7.7 per cent of the previous quarter. It, however bettered the 6.6 per cent in the same period of the last fiscal.

On the GDP data, Economic Affairs Secretary Shaktikanta Das said: "The direction of the numbers is very positive. The policy and reform measure the government has undertaken in last one and a half years are beginning to show results."

The economic growth projection of 7.6 per cent for the current fiscal by CSO has surpassed the estimates of the Finance Ministry, Reserve Bank and other multilateral agencies.

The CSO's estimate is higher than the Finance Ministry's mid-year economic analysis, which projected a growth rate of 7-7.5 per cent for the current fiscal. It is also higher than 7.4 per cent estimated by the Reserve Bank of India.

IMF has projected India's growth at 7.3 per cent while Asian Development Bank expected India's GDP to expand at 7.4 per cent in 2015-16. Moody's Investors Service has put the corresponding figure at 7 per cent for this fiscal.

"Going ahead, we hope to see a continued momentum on the reforms front. We look forward to the Union Budget giving a positive direction to the economy. The focus should clearly be on introducing measures to further boost domestic investments and demand," Ficci Secretary General A Didar Singh said.

The real Gross Value Added (GVA), a new concept introduced by CSO to measure economic growth, is projected at 7.3 per cent in this fiscal against 7.1 per cent in 2014-15.

The manufacturing sector is estimated to grow at 9.5 per cent in 2015-16, up from 5.5 per cent a year ago.

Similarly, in case of agriculture sector, the growth has been projected at 1.1 per cent as against a decline of 0.2 per cent in year-ago period.

The growth of mining and quarrying sector, electricity and power supply and other services is likely to witness deceleration during the current financial year.

Referring to the deceleration in GDP growth in the third quarter, Assocham President Sunil Kanoria said, "Government should also take proactive policy measures in the upcoming Budget, specifically focused on agriculture, infrastructure sector, steel, banking and financial sectors, among others, to revive the economy."

According to the data, the GVA grew at 7.1 per cent in third quarter of this fiscal compared to 6.7 per cent in the same period a year ago.

The GVA for the farm sector contracted one per cent in October-December quarter compared to decline of 2.4 per cent in the same period a year ago.

However, the GVA for manufacturing sector grew at 12.6 per cent in the third quarter as against a growth of 1.7 per cent in the same three month period a year ago.

Similarly, the GVA for mining and quarrying sector grew at 6.5 per cent in the quarter under review compared to 9.1 per cent growth in same period a year ago.

The GVA growth for electricity, gas, water supply and other utility services too slowed down to 6 per cent from 8.8 per cent in same quarter a year ago.

The GVA for construction grew at 4 per cent in the quarter compared to 4.9 per cent in same period in 2014-15.

However, the GVA for trade, hotels, transport, communication and services related to broadcasting grew at 10.1 per cent in third quarter compared to 6.2 per cent in the same period a year ago.

Financial, real estate and professional services grew at 9.9 per cent in third quarter this fiscal compared to 12.1 per cent a year ago.

Public administration, defence and other services grew at 7.5 per cent in the three month period compared to 25.3 per cent a year ago.

CSO estimated that the per capita income in real terms (at 2011-12 prices) during 2015-16 is likely to attain a level of Rs 77,431 as compared to Rs 72,889 for 2014-15.

The growth rate in per capita income is estimated at 6.2 per cent during 2015-16 as against 5.8 per cent in the previous year.

Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF), a barometer of investment, is estimated at Rs 39.82 lakh crore at current prices in 2015-16 as against Rs 38.44 lakh crore in 2014-15.

At constant (2011-12) prices, the GFCF is estimated at Rs 35.88 lakh crore in 2015-16 as against Rs 34.08 lakh crore in 2014-15.

In terms of GDP, the rates of GFCF at current and constant (2011-12) prices during 2015-16 are estimated at 29.4 per cent and 31.6 per cent as against the corresponding rates of 30.8 per cent and 32.3 per cent, respectively in 2014-15.

The GFCF is expected to register growth rate of 3.6 per cent at current prices and 5.3 per cent at constant prices.

The rate of expenditure on valuables at current prices is same as 1.5 per cent in 2015-16 and 2014-15.