It's the best of times, it's the worst of times. It has been raining pink slips in the United States and hiring has taken a backseat in some of the world's largest economies like Italy, France and Japan. Indians, though, are optimistic about the local job prospects over the next year or so, according to the latest Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence survey done in April this year.
Of the 500 Internet-using Indians polled, 26 per cent said the job prospects in the country were excellent and 60 per cent considered them good. India is the second most optimistic country after Norway.
But the optimism is not unmitigated. A year ago, 45 per cent said the local job prospects were excellent and 48 per cent said they were good. Still, the latest findings are better-than-feared, considering that whispers of a global recession have become full-blown screams.
The survey is the largest bi-annual study of its kind. The April round covered 28,253 Internet users in 51 markets. The previous leg was conducted on 26,000 people across 48 countries.
Calculating concern
Four of the top 10 countries agreeing that a recession is in the offing are from the Asia Pacific. But three others from the region ruled it out. India is ninth in the list of countries that foresee a recession in the next 12 months.
About 38 per cent of Indian respondents believe it's imminent, 33 per cent do not think so and 29 per cent don't know. Six months ago 27 per cent foresaw a recession, while 46 per cent didn't.
In the event of a downturn, 69 per cent of Indians would be most concerned about inflation and 44 per cent about interest rates. The last time that Neilsen conducted this survey, the only thing that worried Indians was political instability.
Joblessness doesn't perturb Indians, though it is a big concern in Portugal, Singapore, and Columbia. But don't be surprised if India joins this list in the second half of the year. To fight the surging inflation, the government may tighten the monetary policy.
The resulting rise in the interest rates will make it tougher for companies to raise loans. With less money in their kitty, companies may scale down hiring and, who knows, perhaps even slash jobs.
"There has already been a mild deceleration in employment growth this year," says Ma foi Management Consultants managing director Pandia Rajan. Information technology and IT-enabled services are expected to generate 70,000 jobs this year, 30 per cent less than the 100,000 last year.
Sanjeev Bikhchandani, the chief executive officer of Naukri.com, agrees. "IT is not hiring as many people as it used to, but that (hiring) should pick up in a quarter or two."
According to the spokesperson for Infosys, the company plans to hire 25,000 in the current financial year compared with 33,177 in the last one.
In addition to the job woes, salaries have begun to cool off. "In India the demand-supply situation has begun favouring the employers," says Rajan.
Retail therapy
India has been knocked off its perch by Denmark as the most optimistic nation in the realm of personal finance. In the last leg, 14 per cent thought their personal finances were excellent while 74 per cent said they were good. This time 12 per cent said excellent and 67 per cent considered them good.
Consequently, the Indian respondents were less optimistic about buying the things they want over the next 12 months, recording a 14 percentage point drop.
Still, Indians remain loath to putting the finger on the panic button. Why there are even more of them going on vacation!
The number that spends on holidays and vacations has climbed 4 per cent. That is probably because strong sectors like hospitality, health and education would offset the deceleration in IT jobs. "There has been a 3 per cent growth in the organised sectors," says Rajan.
Besides, despite the spiraling inflation, the gross domestic product continues to grow at 9 per cent. Experts say that as long as economic growth is above 7 per cent, the organised sector will continue to grow. Bikhchandani agrees, "If India continues to grow at the rate it has been so far, the job market is fine."
Indeed, in 2007-2008, Naukri.com reported that 32,500 companies and headhunters were recruiting through their website compared to 27,000 in the previous year.
What's more, with retailers in expansion mode and some like Pantaloon Retail aiming to double the number of stores, hiring will pick up. "We have about 25,000 employees. We intend to increase that to 45,000 by the end of the year," says Future Group's chief people officer Sanjay Jog. "Retail I believe doesn't get affected by global recessionary trends."
Convocation blues
The Class of 2008 has had quite a year. Institute after management institute has boasted about rising salaries and the number of blue-chip companies that fell over one another to hire its students.
At Indian School of Business, not only did the number of offers soar but also salaries hit the roof. In 2007, as many as 202 companies participated, making 581 offers. This year 230 companies participated, offering 657 jobs. The average salary rose 26 per cent to Rs 19 lakh.
Even the second-rung business schools had companies queuing up. Mumbai's S P Jain institute of Management and Research had more than 100 companies interested in filling up positions -- 43 per cent higher than last year.
Many human resources consultants believe that India would be insulated from a recession. In the worst case scenario we can always rely on our tight-fisted nature. Fifty-nine per cent of Indians have put their money in savings, up from 52 per cent in the corresponding period last year.
Moreover, Indians are also taking fewer financial risks. The percentage investing in shares and mutual funds has decreased by three points. So, for now, heave a sigh of relief; Indians are not exactly partying, but there is no need to mourn either.
