Rediff.com« Back to articlePrint this article

What do Tata, Twenty20 & 20K have in common?

November 28, 2007 17:04 IST

Question: what do Tata, Twenty20 and 20,000 have in common? Answer: mention any of the three Ts in the company of an Indian and be prepared for an animated conversation.

Tata Steel, of course, this year clinched the £6.7bn acquisition of Corus, the Anglo-Dutch steelmaker, a landmark move that underscored the scale of the global ambitions of India Inc.

Don't underestimate, either, the effect on the national psyche of India's victory at last month's Twenty20 Cricket World Cup. India, a nation of a billion souls, usually struggles to bag a single bronze at the Olympics.

The latest shot of adrenaline came last week when the Sensex, the benchmark index of the Bombay Stock Exchange, smashed through 20,000 for the first time.

This prompted another round of national euphoria. The Economic Times newspaper blared: "The first 10,000 took over 20 years. The next came in just 20 months . . . Superpower 2020?"

Thanks to the three Ts, 2007 will go down in history as the year in which India successfully took on the world. However, this shouldn't mask the fact that the challenges will be steep during the next 12 months.

Acquisition-hungry Indian companies in sectors such as pharmaceuticals, information technology and automotive engineering will continue to hunt for deals that would help to them gain access to new markets, reduce spiralling domestic labour costs or boost economies of scale.

However, dealmakers in Mumbai believe that the chances of another mega deal such as Tata/Corus are slim given the state of the credit markets. The grandiose corporate ambition may remain but financing issues will clip the sizes of overseas mergers and acquisition activity.

In fact, China is likely to continue to overshadow India in terms of overseas M&A next year, not least in the critical area of energy where both countries are keen to secure imported supplies.

Latest figures show that India is dependent on imports for 73 per cent of its petroleum needs, compared to about 55 per cent in China. This makes India's relative lack of action on the energy M&A front all the more surprising.

China has racked up a $50bn bill to secure energy supplies since US troops rolled into Baghdad in 2003. Compared to New Delhi, Beijing has made energy security a top priority and works to help China's listed oil companies clinch deals.

By contrast, potential acquisitions made by ONGC, India's state-controlled oil company, are subject to political manoeuvrings in New Delhi.

This was the case almost two years ago when the Indian government blocked ONGC from acquiring a coveted 45 per cent stake in the oil-rich Akpo field in Nigeria on the grounds that it was "too risky".

ONGC had won the bidding for the asset and its 11th-hour withdrawal allowed China's CNOOC to seal a $2bn deal just days later. The episode still makes dealmakers in Mumbai shudder.

Ironically, it looks as though India's entrepreneur-driven business culture, which has led to risk-taking such as Tata's takeover of Corus, will do it few favours in the energy sector where politics dominates.

If overseas M&A will be tough, trying to predict where stock prices are heading is even more so. The Sensex has climbed 40 per cent since the US started to slash interest rates in late August.

Ridham Desai, equity strategist at Morgan Stanley in Mumbai, calculates that India's top stocks are trading at an 80 per cent premium to comparable global stocks.

He believes that, at current prices, investors are assuming that corporate earnings will not be volatile. However, Morgan Stanley calculations point to slowing earnings growth at India's top 100 companies, albeit down to 25 per cent per annum.

Rising growth rates attracted record foreign inflows in recent weeks, almost 80 per cent of which was from portfolio flows as opposed to investment in bricks and mortar.

In the five weeks to October 19, India attracted $30bn in overseas dollars - close to half of the entire year's inflow. This sudden gush pushed up the value of the rupee against the dollar, a move that forced the Indian authorities to tighten the rules governing foreign investment through so-called "participatory" notes.

The next few weeks and months could be rocky on the domestic currency and interest rate fronts while there is also nervousness about how overseas events could affect local stocks.

As well as the widening fallout from the US subprime crisis, dealmakers are keeping a close eye on events across the border in Pakistan. There are few direct trading links between the two countries but a rise in tension between the nuclear-armed neighbours will scare off global investors.

Even the national cricket team faces a number of tough examinations in 2008, starting with a test series in Australia.

Sundeep Tucker in Hong Kong