India-US bilateral trade can reach $1 trillion by 2030

Ahead of the meeting between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and US President Barack Obama later this month, an eminent Indian think-tank has said the two nations need to take steps to increase their bilateral trade to $1 trillion by 2030.

The paper titled The India-US Partnership:  $1 Trillion by 2030, by Mumbai-based Gateway House, released here argues that to elevate the bilateral trade from $120 billion in 2013 to $1 trillion in 2030, the two countries need to adopt a different path for its bilateral trade.

It says the paths should be based on hockey-stick curve more typical of tech start-ups and one that will bring India into the group of the three other countries outside the G7, which have a deep economic tie with the US: Israel, Mexico and South Korea. Authored by Nish Acharya, a senior advisor at Northeastern University, the paper identifies four positions for India and the US to pursue for the success of the engagement. Technology, then as now, presents the springboard for the future of a vigorous India-US partnership, it said yesterday.

In order to tackle India's development challenges, it is necessary to create a 'surge' - a rapid and intense deployment of talented individuals and technical experts to address the critical and immediate challenges - in areas such as energy, infrastructure, healthcare and agriculture, the paper said.

"A surge provides an opportunity to invite companies and experts from the US to begin working on these critical areas," it said.

Noting that technologies can create millions of new jobs and opportunities in India, the think-tank said India needs to build a Silicon Swadesh - a robust entrepreneurial ecosystem, modelled on Silicon Valley - to support homegrown innovation and entrepreneurship.

According to the paper, India needs to build a ramp for poverty alleviation which would enable the 42 per cent of Indians that live under the World Bank poverty line of $1.25 a day to access the services of NGOs and social entrepreneurs.

"The country needs to take advantage of next generation technologies for which it is well suited, such as synthetic biology, 3D printing, mobile, social and big data, to create an industrial base in India from which products and services can be sold and jobs created," it said.

The US is a pioneer in many of these technologies, and a fruitful collaboration between the two countries would involve mainly research and sales, the paper said.

Observing that Indian-Americans have contributed largely to the entrepreneurial, small business and healthcare sectors in the US, the research paper says India can continue to feed skilled professionals in the US.

The think-tank said the US can leverage the customer base of 100 million Indians who study and work abroad and maintain a connection to the US throughout their lives as their relatives reside there.

Prime Minister Modi will meet President Obama at the White House on September 29 and 30, US officials said.

Image: US President Barack Obama waves after delivering remarks at the US-India Business and Entrepreneurship Summit in Mumbai.

Photograph: Jim Young/Reuters