Among major economies, India in FY23 recorded the steepest increase in greenhouse gas (GHG) emission, climbing 6.1 per cent, with China trailing close behind at 5.2 per cent, according to the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) Emissions Gap Report 2024.
In contrast, GHG emission decreased in both the European Union (EU) and the United States (US) by 7.5 per cent and 1.4 per cent, respectively.
Despite India’s rise, its 2023 GHG emission remains relatively low at 4,140 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO₂e) against China’s 16,000 and the US’s 5,970.
The EU’s emission was slightly lower than India’s, at 3,230 MtCO₂e.
The report, titled “No More Hot Air... Please!”, underscores that if countries fail to collectively cut annual GHG emission by 42 per cent by 2030 and by 57 per cent by 2035, the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C global temperature target will become unattainable within a few years.
These reductions are set to be cemented in the next round of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), which countries are to submit early next year ahead of COP30 in Brazil.
Without a significant enhancement in NDC targets, the UNEP warns global temperatures could rise by 2.6-3.1°C by the century’s end, risking severe impacts on people, ecosystems, and economies worldwide.
While current policy projections for 2030 show a modest decline compared to last year, they remain insufficient.
The report attributes this drop partly to updates in China’s and India’s NDCs, which include relative emissions targets.
The conditional NDCs of India, Indonesia, and Mexico, if met, could lower G20 aggregate emission by about 0.8 GtCO₂e annually by 2030.
India and Mexico are expected to meet these conditional targets, according to the UNEP report.
Achieving peak global emission faces a challenge from several uncertainties, including the adoption rate of clean technology in low- and middle-income countries such as China and India, which must outpace rising energy demand.
For regions that have peaked in emission, mainly in Europe, sustaining reduction beyond the power sector remains essential.
Natural factors, like climate-induced declines in hydropower and warming-driven land-use emission, further complicate these efforts, the report said.
The UNEP report reveals a technical potential to cut emission by up to 31 gigatons of CO₂ equivalent in 2030, representing about 52 per cent of the 2023 emission and up to 41 gigatons by 2035.
Achieving these reductions could keep the world on track for the 1.5°C goal, at an estimated cost below $200 per ton of CO₂ equivalent.
Solar photovoltaic and wind energy deployment could deliver 27 per cent of the reduction potential in 2030 and 38 per cent by 2035, while forest conservation and restoration could provide around 20 per cent of the reductions each year.
Efficiency improvement, electrification, and fuel switching in buildings, transport, and industry also offer strong emission-cutting potential.
These pathways illustrate the feasibility of reaching COP28 targets, including tripling the renewable energy capacity and doubling the annual rate of energy efficiency improvement by 2030, as well as transitioning from fossil fuels and conserving and restoring ecosystems, the report said.
