IMD now says Sep may see excess rains

The southwest monsoon is set to make its exit in style, bringing rains to the parched parts of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, as weather forecasters have picked up signs of formation of a cyclonic circulation over Bay of Bengal.

Addressing a press conference in New Delhi, India Meteorological Department (IMD) director general Mrutyunjay Mohapatra on Thursday junked last week's forecast of early withdrawal of southwest monsoon and announced the extended stay of the seasonal showers.

"Even though we expected early withdrawal of the southwest monsoon, a cyclonic circulation over west-central and adjoining northwest Bay of Bengal will shift the monsoon trough southwards around September 7.

"This will increase rainfall activity over central and north peninsular India," Mohapatra said.

"Hence, conditions are not favourable for early withdrawal of monsoon," he said, adding that the weather office will continue to monitor the situation.

On August 25, the weather office had predicted an early withdrawal of southwest monsoon against the normal date of September 17.

India has received six per cent excess rainfall this monsoon but large parts of Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, Manipur, Tripura and West Bengal have reported deficient rains, which has affected the rice crop this kharif season.

Mohapatra said the expected surge in September showers may help compensate for the deficient rainfall in western and southern Uttar Pradesh and parts of north-northwest Bihar.

Mohapatra said rainfall average for the country as a whole was likely to be above normal, approximately 109 per cent of the long period average of 167.9 mm for the month of September.

"Normal to above normal rainfall probability is likely over most parts of India except many parts of northeast India, and some parts of east and northwest India where below normal rainfall is likely," he said.

Mohapatra said most parts of the country were expected to experience below normal day temperatures, except parts of east and northeast India.

Some pockets of central and northwest India too are expected to experience above normal maximum temperatures, he said.

Mohapatra said nights were expected to be warmer over most parts of the country, except some parts of northwest India and southeastern parts of Peninsular India.