Scanty rains may nix India's grain export plan

The government on Thursday said India's forays in the world grain market will be reconsidered if the monsoon fails for the second consecutive year as the country's food security is of primary concern.

"As of now, the country has sufficient foodstocks despite the 28 million tonne fall in production in 2002-03 but in case the monsoon fails again this year, grain exports policy will be given a relook," Agriculture Minister Ajit Singh told PTI.

If the monsoon fails, a number of issues will have to be reconsidered including exports of foodgrains, he said.

Met department has forecast a below normal monsoon in 2003 with new models indicating 39 per cent probability of below normal rainfall and 21 per cent probability of drought.

The minister said after 14 normal monsoons, three or four years of shortfall in rains cannot be ruled out and the country needs to be prepared for such an eventuality.

Last year the country had the worst drought in more than a century and foodgrains' production in 2002-03 fell to a mere 184.07 million tonnes after reaching a record high of 212.03 million tonnes in the previous year.

Notwithstanding this 13.2 per cent decline in agri-output, the minister said at present the country is fully prepared to attend to the food security needs of the masses.

Since India began its grain exports in November 2000, stocks have fallen from 455.1 lakh tonne to 400 lakh tonne in February this year before reaching an all time high of 648.3 lakh tonne in June 2002.

Food ministry officials said at present there are no plans to halt exports of wheat and rice and it will be too early to assess the likely monsoon trend and its agri impact.