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Industrial figures point to deep global downturn

December 02, 2008 11:16 IST

Evidence of a global slide to a deep recession mounted on Monday with severe strain reported by manufacturing companies around the world, large falls in car sales across Europe and bad construction figures in the US.

So clear are the signs of a US downturn that the National Bureau of Economic Research, the most prestigious US independent economic authority, said the country has been in recession since December 2007.

  • Bank Street
  • Indian attacks come at bad time for economy
  • The NBER academics define a recession  as "a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in production, employment, real income, and other indicators". They waited until now to be sure the downturn was not a temporary blip.

    Most other advanced countries accept they face a severe recession given the consistently and surprisingly bad economic data since mid-September.

    Surveys of manufacturing orders in the US, Europe and China published on Monday were much weaker than expected. In China, the purchasing managers index compiled by the government-linked China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing fell from 44.6 in October to 38.8 last month, the lowest reading since the series started in 2005.

  • ISM data reinforce US manufacturing gloom
  • America must keep consumer liquidity flowing
  • The eurozone manufacturing PMI figures hit a series low. In the US, equivalent data from the Institute for Supply Management showed manufacturing activity suffered a further slowdown last month to a 26-year low.

    New car sales have slumped across the world. In November, new registrations were 49.6 per cent lower in Spain than a year earlier, 36 per cent off in Sweden, 29 per cent in Japan and 14 per cent in France.

    The global weakness hit equity markets with FTSE Eurofirst 300 falling 6 per cent, the FTSE 100 5.2 per cent and the S&P 500 index down over 6 per cent in mid-afternoon trading.

    US construction was weak with October spending down 1.2 per cent compared with September.

    Volatility reigned on currency markets as investors and traders sought to find safe havens from countries perceived least able to deal with the turmoil.

    The pound bore most of the brunt as it was pummelled against the dollar, the euro, and the yen.

    Of greater concern to the global economy was the Chinese central bank's announcement of a relatively big one-day drop in the value of the renminbi against the US dollar.

    Chris Giles in London and Geoff Dyer in Beijing, FT.com
    Source: source image