US dollar to depreciate: ICICI Bank

Neeraj Gambhir of ICICI Bank says that bond prices are surging due to auction and the Fed's move.  He adds that the negative carry in major currencies may come down and depreciation in US dollar is expected.

Excerpts from CNBC-TV18's exclusive interview with Neeraj Gambhir:

How are the bond markets taking yesterday's Fed move?

I think it's positive for the bond market because yesterday's auction also went up quite well and the cut-off was somewhat on the lower side as compared to what one would have thought. In the beginning rounds of the auction there wasn't too much of demand expected.

However, the entire auction went off pretty smoothly, and at the lower end of the expected range in terms of yield was quite a booster for the market. Given the fact that the Fed has also paused, I think that's adding to the momentum on the price side.

What's the outlook on rupee and its behaviour? It has opened at 46.61 today.

I think rupee will remain range bound for a while because for the next move in rupee, we will have to see what happens to the dollar globally, specifically vis-à-vis the Yen and some of the South East Asian currencies over the next few days.

The feeling is that the pause on the Fed and consistent increase of rates by ECB (European Central Bank) and Japanese Central Bank could lead to a situation, where the negative carry, which was being faced by some of these currencies will be coming down.

Therefore, one could see some steady depreciation in US dollar vis-à-vis these currencies. Given that and the fact that some slowdown has also resumed in the domestic market, it would lead to some kind of an appreciation of the rupee over the medium term.

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