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India's summer oilseed and grains crops are set to fall five to 10 per cent this year due to bad weather and a drop in acreage, government and trade officials said on Monday.
They forecast the production of wheat, which contributes more than half of the total summer grains output, would drop to about 66-69 million tonnes from 73.5 million tonnes last year.
The summer oilseed output is expected to fall 4.9 per cent to 7.51 million tonnes as land under the main mustard crop had shrunk in northern states.
"Harsh climatic conditions, along with lower area under crops, are likely to hit productivity of summer wheat," said D S Chauhan, director of state-run directorate of Wheat Research, based in Karnal.
Scanty rains during the main June to September monsoon season had already lowered grains output in the winter season by nearly one-fifth from a year earlier to 90.64 million tonnes, according to government estimates.
The oilseed crop fell 25 per cent to 9.89 million tonnes.
The poor rainfall, which caused a drought across one-third of India, created moisture stress in many parts at the time of sowing of summer crops in November and December, traders said.
The situation was worsened by the failure of post-monsoon showers, which contribute about 20 per cent to India's total rainfall, in major wheat and oilseed growing areas, resulting in a rise in temperature, they said.
Chauhan said there were fewer surviving wheat plants this year compared with a year ago due to a rise in surface temperature by about 10 degrees centigrade at the time of sowing.
The mercury has fallen in the past few weeks but was still higher than normal, he said.
Wheat sowing is still continuing in several parts, but the area at 14.3 million hectares is about 11 per cent lower from the corresponding period last year, a government report showed.
The wheat crop accounts for more than half of the total summer grains and pulses output. The area under pulses has fallen by 15 per cent to 8.2 million hectares.
Oilseed output
"We were expecting a rise in area under oilseed as farmers had got remunerative prices this year," said Sandeep Bajoria, chairman of the Central Organisation of Oil Industry and Trade.
But moisture stress prevented timely sowing while the absence of post-monsoon showers further damaged crop, he said.
Arable land under oilseed had slipped by 14 per cent to six million hectares from a year earlier, the government report said.
Sowing of mustard was almost completed but the area had dipped 21 per cent to 3.86 million hectares, it said.