'Climate change to cause upto 13% GDP loss by 2010'

Given their increasing frequency, climate related disasters will result in 9 to 13 per cent of loss of GDP in India by 2010 and will be a key factor in preventing the economic growth in South Asia, a study has warned.

The Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) aim to halve world poverty by 2015. South Asian countries should include disaster-risk management in national strategic plans, the study 'Rethinking Disasters' released on Thursday by Oxfam said.

Two to six per cent of South Asias gross domestic product is lost to disasters every year, the study said.

The associated costs of climate change threaten to jeopardise South Asias growth. By 2010, the cost of climate change in India is estimated to result in 9 to 13 per cent loss of GDP, the study found.

South Asia has become world's most disaster-prone region when it comes to natural calamities, the study claims.

Each new disaster deepens poor peoples vulnerability, does not allow them to enjoy the fruits of development and slows national growth, Nisha Agrawal, Oxfams CEO in India, said.

The study said that two-third of South Asias disasters are climate related and rich countries are overwhelmingly responsible for the climate changes.

An increase in temperature beyond two degrees Celsius will cause sea levels to rise, risking coastal flooding and salt-water infiltration into drinking water, it warned.

The situation is aggravated by the low level of development which means more harm when it comes to human lives. On an average 50 poor countries are exposed to 11 per cent of the worlds natural hazards and they suffer 53 per cent of deaths due to these calamities each year.

However, developed countries have exposure to 15 per cent of all hazards, but account for only 1.5 per cent of the deaths, the study, quoting UNDP, said.

The study has found fault with South Asias approach to economic development which has allowed environmental destruction, increasing the risk of natural disasters.

"Indias mangrove tree cover has been reduced to less than a third of its original area in the past three decades. After the tsunami in 2004, it became evident that the clearing of mangroves in India and Sri Lanka has left communities more vulnerable to the power of the waves," the study said.

The natural disasters in the region leave a trail of tragedy and destruction and arrest long-term development programmes.

But nature alone cannot be blamed for the disasters. Factors like poverty, exclusion, inequality, inappropriate political decisions and actions also contribute to the damages by disasters.

Disasters also cause supply-deficits and hoarding which lead to increase in inflation and affect the poor people, the study said.