Cash out: Mobile wallet payments may hit Rs 532 trn in 2028

Mobile wallet adoption is surging in India and swiftly becoming a primary payment option, surpassing traditional methods like cash and cards.

Over the next few years, payments via mobile wallets in India are likely to surpass the Rs 531.8 trillion mark in 2028, witnessing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18.3 per cent between 2024 and 2028, according to GlobalData – a London-based leading data and analytics company.

The value of mobile wallet payments in India, as per a GlobalData report, grew at a CAGR of 72.1 per cent between 2019 and 2023 to reach Rs 202.8 trillion ($2.5 trillion) in 2023.

This, it believes, is mainly due to the government’s concerted efforts to promote digital payment methods, most prominent being the mobile wallet-based instant payment solution—unified payments interface (UPI).

Last week, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) said it will soon facilitate cash deposit facilities in banks through united payment interface (UPI), which has traditionally been a popular method for peer-to-peer (P2P) transactions, bill payments, merchant transactions, and other digital payments.

Launched in April 2016, UPI had a user base of 300 million as of October 2023, GlobalData said.

At present, UPI payments from Prepaid Payment Instruments (PPIs) can be made only by using the web or mobile app provided by the PPI issuer.

RBI plans to permit the use of third-party UPI apps for making UPI payments from PPI wallets.

With the change proposed by the RBI last week, one will be able to deposit cash at Cash Deposit Machines (CDMs) using UPI, which in turn will eliminate the need for an ATM or debit card.

"The reach of mobile wallet payments is increasing rapidly, supported by the government’s push towards digital payments, widespread use of UPI-based QR code payments, coupled with high merchant acceptance.

"The solution offers fast, secure, convenient, and low-cost fund transfers and payments and has the potential to further disrupt the overall payment space in India," said Shivani Gupta, senior banking and payments analyst at GlobalData.

Average ticket size

According to National Payments Corporation of India (NPCI) statistics, 12.1 billion transactions worth Rs 18.3 trillion ($221.5 billion) were made in February 2024 – up from 7.5 billion transactions worth Rs 12.4 trillion ($150.1 billion) made in February 2023.

Transactions via UPI reached 65.77 billion in the second half of calendar year 2023 (CY23), up 56 per cent from 42.09 billion in H2-CY22, said a report from Worldline , a global leader in payment services.

The value of these UPI transactions, according to them, surged 44 per cent YoY in H2-CY23 to reach the Rs 99.68 trillion mark (Rs 69.36 trillion in H2-CY22).

The average ticket size (ATS) of all UPI transactions in H2-CY22 stood at Rs 1,648 compared to Rs 1,515 in H2-CY23, a drop of 8 per cent.

"In terms of volume and value, PhonePe, Google Pay and Paytm were the dominant UPI app players.

"In December 2023 the 3 apps accounted 95.4 per cent of all the transactions in terms of volume, which was 94.8 per cent in December 2022, while in terms of value they together comprised 93 per cent in December 2023 which was 92.2 per cent in the same period last year," the Worldline report said.