Preparations for the Bharatiya Janata Party's last Budget before the next general elections are behind schedule.
With barely seven weeks to go before Finance and Company Affairs Minister Jaswant Singh presents his 2003-04 Budget, North Block is yet to firm up its revised estimates for the current fiscal.
Senior government officials said a clear political message was awaited before any proposal affecting the channelling of funds and taxation was taken up.
The Rajnath Singh committee's final observations on the Kelkar panel recommendations would be crucial, they said.
Revenue department officials, however, underplayed the Kelkar report and the outcome of Rajnath Singh's meeting with Jaswant Singh on January 10.
"The Kelkar report will be another input for the Budget," said a senior official, adding that the finance minister had spoken his mind on tax exemptions for housing and a higher interest rate for pensioners.
While North Block's meetings with various departments and ministries on their utilisation of funds this year was over in the first week of December, their expenditure ceilings for the next year are just being firmed up.
The revenue department is, however, yet to submit its final estimates of direct and indirect tax collections. "This is vital since this will determine the government's borrowing programme for the year," said an official.
Even as the revenue department is grappling with a likely shortfall of Rs 18,500 crore (Rs 185 billion) -- Rs 11,000 crore (Rs 110 billion) on direct taxes and Rs 7,500 crore (Rs 75 billion) on indirect taxes, including service tax -- the expenditure department is unaware of the estimates, since this will determine the need for extra borrowings during the financial year.
In fact, the Centre on Monday completed its market borrowings for the full year.
Officials are also not clear whether states should be allowed additional market borrowings this year in the event of lower revenue collection, which would directly affect their share of central taxes.
"Unless we get a revised figure from the department, we cannot take a call," said a senior official.
With elections scheduled in 10 states this year, the finance ministry has received a signal from the Prime Minister's Office that the Budget 'should not annoy the middle class.'
The officials said Jaswant Singh was likely to push for a growth-oriented Budget, with emphasis on the social and infrastructure sectors.
The next general elections are likely to be held by mid-2004. The NDA government, in all probability, will present only a vote on account instead of a full-fledged Budget.
"This is technically the last Budget of the BJP-led coalition. A harsh Budget is not expected," said an official.
