The Asian Development Bank said on Thursday it raised its 2002 growth forecast for the region's economies to 5.6 per cent, but trimmed its estimate for next year to the same rate as an export boom would tail off.
The bank has also revised the forecast for India's growth in 2003 to 5.5 per cent.
The December update by the Manila-based institution was a marked jump from the 5.0 per cent growth for this year it had expected in September but a slight fall from the 5.7 per cent expansion it had forecast for 2003.
"We had underestimated how robust export growth would be from the region. What we have seen since June this year has been nothing short of spectacular," Ifzal Ali, the ADB's chief economist, told a news conference.
"This kind of momentum I don't think can be sustained in 2003."
Following is a table of the changes in the ADB's expected growth rates of selected Asian countries between its updates in September and December (percentage change versus year earlier):
2001 --- 2002 --- 2002 --- 2003 --- 2003
(Actual) --- (Sept) --- (Dec) --- (Sept) --- (Dec)
South Asia --- 4.8 --- 3.9 --- 5.0 --- 5.7 --- 5.5
India --- 5.4 --- 4.0 --- 5.0 --- 6.0 --- 5.5
East Asia --- 3.9 --- 5.7 --- 6.2 --- 6.1 --- 5.8
China --- 7.3 --- 7.4 --- 8.0 --- 7.5 --- 7.2
Hong Kong --- 0.6 --- 1.4 --- 1.4 --- 3.5 --- 2.8
South Korea --- 3.0 --- 6.0 --- 5.8 --- 5.8 --- 5.5
Taiwan --- -2.2 --- 3.0 --- 3.1 --- 4.0 --- 3.5
Central Asian Republics --- 10.7 --- 6.2 --- n/a --- 5.7 --- n/a
Southeast Asia --- 2.0 --- 3.8 --- 3.9 --- 4.6 --- 4.3
Indonesia --- 3.5 --- 3.2 --- 3.5 --- 4.4 --- 3.7
Malaysia --- 0.4 --- 4.5 --- 4.0 --- 5.0 --- 5.0
Philippines --- 3.2 --- 4.0 --- 4.0 --- 4.5 --- 3.8
Singapore --- -2.0 --- 3.9 --- 2.4 --- 5.6 --- 4.0
Thailand --- 1.8 --- 3.8 --- 4.6 --- 4.0 --- 4.3
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