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Home  » Business » The 8% GDP solution

The 8% GDP solution

By T N Ninan
February 11, 2006 14:27 IST
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Among the two dozen largest "emerging markets" of the world, at least 10 are now growing their GDP at 7 per cent or more.

More than half of them are growing faster than 8 per cent, including Pakistan. And some, of course, are growing faster than 9 per cent, including China and Argentina.

So India is not an exceptional story when its GDP grows this year by 8.1 per cent. In the global context, it remains where it has been for the last quarter century: among the six fastest growing economies.

This is to place in context, not belittle a significant achievement - which is to have achieved an annual average growth of 8 per cent over the last three years, something that only China can claim among all the others.

Also in context is the fact that the Asian Tigers are no longer the stars - Thailand, South Korea, Singapore, Malaysia and Indonesia are all growing at rather modest rates these days (the exception is Hong Kong).

It is not even a "BRICs" story, since two of the countries represented by those initials - Brazil and Russia - don't have growth rates to match. In that sense, the global focus on India and China seems entirely warranted.

Three elements probably explain why the elephant is beginning to dance. The savings rate, in relation to GDP, has shot up, reaching 28.1 per cent in 2004-05, which is an increase of about 5 percentage points in two or three years.

That alone should raise the GDP growth rate by nearly 1.5 percentage points, if you assume that for every incremental unit of output, you need 3.5 units of capital (the maths is a simple division: a 28 per cent savings rate divided by the ratio of 3.5 gives you 8 per cent GDP growth).

Bear in mind that, before the reform process began in 1991, the ratio of capital to output on the margin was not 3.5 but closer to 4-which is a measure of how much more efficiently India is now using capital or (which is the same thing) how productivity has improved. This is the real measure of what the reforms have achieved.

Importantly, one reason for the better savings rate is the reduction in the fiscal deficit. This year (2005-06), the combined fiscal deficit of the central and state governments should settle at less than 8 per cent of GDP, when it used to be nearer 10 per cent till quite recently. With the government "dissaving" less, the over-all savings rate goes up which then helps output to grow faster.

The third element has to be exports - which in the last three calendar years grew by an annual average of 24 per cent. India's new openness to the world (substantially lower tariffs, easier flow of goods and services, re-orientation of production as manufacturers have gained confidence) has meant that India's exports have grown significantly faster than world trade in the same period (19 per cent), and somewhat faster even than emerging markets. With the trade-GDP ratio climbing, this has been an important growth driver.

Does that mean the 8 per cent GDP growth rate can be sustained? Since the underlying changes in macro-economic numbers are for real, there is no reason why not. But two riders should be noted.

One is that the global economic environment has been favourable for growth (which is why so many emerging markets are growing at 7 per cent and more). This can change. Already, the growth of world trade in 2005 was slower than in the previous two years. The high oil prices and the imbalances in the US economy can upset the apple-cart, too.

Second, India's internal confidence levels are running ahead of reality. The most recent survey of business confidence, by the National Council for Applied Economic Research, showed the index of business confidence at a new peak.

But note that factors affecting the respondents' own business (like profit growth expectations) have not improved by as much as perceptions about the environment and the stock market. This suggests an excess of optimism, especially when profit growth in the last quarter has been in the low single digits.

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T N Ninan
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