The Indian IT industry is likely to witness a 3-4 per cent dip in growth in the current financial year as against a 28 per cent growth it achieved in the previous financial year, according to the National Association of Software and Services Companies (Nasscom).

The projected fall has been attributed to the US economic slowdown and the rise in international oil prices. Accordingly, the industry growth has been pegged at around 24 per cent for FY09.

In FY08, total revenues including hardware were $48 billion which are expected to touch $64 billion in FY09.

The total software and services revenue was $39.5 billion in FY08 and expected to touch $52 billion in FY09. Of this, export is expected to cross $40.3 billion as against $31.3 billion in FY08. But the $40.3 billion target has now become somewhat difficult due to global economic changes.

"As part of the globalised economy, we have to accept the fact that any change outside will impact us," said Nasscom President Som Mittal on Monday on the sidelines of the BPO Strategy Summit-2008 in Bangalore.

Many software companies including Infosys [Get Quote] have projected a muted growth in the first two quarters of the current financial year as their clients are preferring not to rush to spend on technology.

However, Nasscom said it would release revised projections in July. "Even the 24 per cent growth is quite robust as spending will be lower this year because of the hike in oil prices," contended Nasscom Chairman and Zensar Technologies CEO Ganesh Natarajan.

He said, "Actually, there are two schools of thought with regard to the impact of the economic slowdown and dollar plunge. While some say that the growth would be affected, others read the situation as an opportunity to hit sweet spots by improving in quality delivery efficiency and cashing in on the growing domestic BPO market."

He, however, was of the opinion that there would be slow growth for one or two years and that the country would gain in the long term.

Nasscom Chairman and Genpact CEO Pramod Bhasin said that several foreign companies were looking at India which is emerging as a hub of process expertise. "The country has the largest pool of six sigma experts and is also known for its re-engineering expertise. If we build an eco-system around the process expertise, we will be the best in the world."

He suggested that more emphasis be laid on addressing shortage of skills and infrastructure problems.