If the provisional figures released by the department of commerce are any indication, India is unlikely to meet the export target of $125 billion in the 2006-2007 fiscal.

According to the ministry's data, exports during the first 11 months of the current fiscal showed that export receipts were $109 billion, leaving $16 billion to be scored in a single month.

Exports during February 2007, the latest available month, amounted to $9.7 billion, compared with $7.8 billion in February 2006. Though the growth is close to 24 per cent, if the provisionally revised figure of $8.9 billion for February 2006 is taken, the growth in February 2007 slows down to a mere 8 per cent.

Cumulatively, exports during the period April-February 2007 were $109.1 billion against $88.7 billion during April-February 2006, showing a growth of 22.95 per cent. However, if the provisionally revised figure of $91.4 billion for 2005-06 April-February is taken into account, export growth slows down by a notch or two.

Officials in the commerce ministry said in the given circumstances, exports would at best be around or slightly lower than $120 billion for the whole of the fiscal 2006-07.

The spurt in export of engineering goods which was noticeable during most of the last fiscal was somehow moderated by the relatively lower realisation from petroleum products, which of late have seen a softening in prices globally. Even exports of textiles and clothing did not do well as projected.

On the import front, during February 2007, the imports were at $14.3 billion compared with $11 billion in February 2006, showing a growth rate of close to 31 per cent.

However, if the provisionally revised import figure of 2006 at $11.4 billion is taken, the growth is still at a hefty 30 per cent.

Cumulatively, the country's imports during the first 11 months of the last fiscal amounted to $164.9 billion, against $126.3 billion in the corresponding months of 2005-06, showing a growth of 30.59 per cent.

Crude oil imports were valued at $4,061.4 million in February 2007, against $4,109.96 million in February 2006, while cumulatively imports during April-February 2007 were valued at $52,673 million, up by 32.52 per cent against $39,748.35 million in the corresponding period last year.

Non-oil imports were estimated at $10,301.29 million during February 2007, against $7,370 million in February 2006, while cumulatively such imports were valued at $112 billion ($1,12,311 million) which was 25.67 per cent higher than the level of such imports valued at $89 billion in April-February 2006.

As a result of high exports and higher imports during most of the last fiscal, the trade deficit during the first 11 months of 2006-07 fiscal went up by a whopping $18 billion at $55.9 billion, compared with $37.5 billion during April-February 2006.