It seems, as far as sugar and cane production is concerned, numbers are something the government can always juggle with in India.

If you go through the recent data released by the government on sugar production, it beats any logic.

In fact, during the past few weeks, the government has revised the sugar and cane production information several times. And always, it revised the output upward.

Even after so many revisions, there is no guarantee that the numbers reflect the reality. Sugar output estimate for the ongoing 2006-07 season has been going up regularly.

The latest number to come out from the government is 260 lakh tonne (26 million tonne). Over the last 4-5 months, the industry raised the production estimate at frequent intervals. Starting with 230 lakh tonne (23 million tonne) at the beginning of the season, production was raised three times in instalments of 10 lakh tonne (1 million tonne).

The Union government, too, has not lagged behind in adding to the confusion in estimating cane and sugar production. From 283 million tonne, cane production was revised up to 315 million tonne.

Official estimate of sugar production in 2006-07 was 227 lakh tonne and the latest is 238 lakh tonne (23.8 million tonne) after Maharashtra reported a large increase in output. The state is said to produce 81 lakh tonne (8.1 million tonne), a number that may again be over-stated.

Considering that for 2005-06, the official sugarcane output estimate was 278 million tonne and sugar production estimate was 195 lakh tonne (19.5 million tonne), current year's production marks a sizeable increase.

A bumper crop is definitely something to cheer about. But, that should be based on facts. In normal cases, in India agriculture has not shown dramatic output upheaval.

If the present estimate for sugar output is correct, the government should explain where the commodity is coming from. Even if you consider the increase in land under sugar cultivation, it does not justify the government's projection for this year's output.

And, if the estimate is correct, then the initial projection, which was revised several times, was grossly off the mark.

Considering this, one should take note of the fact that based on the initial cane output and sugar production estimate (announced by the Agriculture Ministry and Food Ministry respectively) that the finance ministry imposed a ban on sugar exports last year.

The ban on export is now termed as the villain that spoilt the sugar party. It was the government that took the decision to ban export based on government's own estimates. It seems someone is making serious mistakes in this area and people are paying for those errors.

It is time someone assumed responsibility for coming up with unrealistic estimates and for making frequent changes. The market deserves more transparency in these matters.

Now, the situation is this. After last year's ban on exports, the government is now granting sops to the sugar industry to export the commodity.

This would entail a huge cost to the exchequer. Burdened by huge production and inventory overhang, the industry is keen to liquidate stocks. Desperate to succumb to the industry demands, the government has announced a package of export incentive.