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Home > Business > Stock Chat > Transcript
India's strong economy a safety shield
March 29, 2005
Appu : Hello Sir, Media is the future and the new entrant is UTV. They are behind Hungama TV channel and Swades (movie). Is it a good bargain at the present price. Your views
Ramesh S Damani : Hello everyone, thanks for joining. Lets start. I am not enthusiastic about UTV at these prices.
nagesh : I have bought UBholdings 1000 @184. Do I keep them or dispose them please as the market is down at the moment
Ramesh S Damani : I do not comment on day to day price movements. Take a patient view on investments.
joegranville : Ramesh, all the emerging maket are falling as recent fed hike got some FII money back to US as bonds yields have increased in US? Even Greenspan hinted that there might be more sharper and frequent rate hikes in future? does not it mean some more FII money will flow out of emerging market , thus making emering market valuation attractive from the long term stand? thanks
Ramesh S Damani : High interest rates are negative for markets. However, India has a strong domestic economy and hence protected.
Appu : Mr Damani, May I know why Nucleus Software and Tata Elxsi [Get Quote] are your core holdings. Is it a long-term story?
Ramesh S Damani : they are good. Company's s doing well with good prospects.
SUDHIR : sir i think you must admit that you had been proven wrong since last week. you were bullish on liquor stock as well as markets but both had crashed heavily since then. i had lost a lot of money. now should i average my holdings in liquor stock or sell them at a loss
Ramesh S Damani : i have been bullish on liquor since 3 years. You happen to listen last week.
Singaraj : Mount Everest.I am searching for comparable (pure play mineral water co.) valuatons in other markets to get some vision of the big picture. I came across 1.DANONE of France, world leader in natural mineral water in volume terms, brand EVIAN from french alps, Market cap US$2.7bn, but it is also a world leader in fresh dairy products and cereal biscuits. 2).Nestle [Get Quote] waters north america,brands PERRIER, VITTEL etc,with sales of US$2.3bn which in turn owned by the well known giant NESTLE.I request you to give valuations of some(at least one) comparable co's in other markets.(In liquor, your overseas examples helped tremendously in early years).Thank you sir.
Ramesh S Damani : evian and perrier are good eg. Remember though that Mt Everest is an immature co. Don't change price. Invest with a view to the future. I will get some examples as I find them.
newinvestor : sir, is Aegis logistics [Get Quote] better than GATI or Balmer Lawrie cos the Net Profit/Total Revenue for Aegis is much higher?
Ramesh S Damani : different co;s in the same area. not strictly comparable.
Neewbieatstock : Sir 2 questions which am sure are on everyone's mind. What's your take on the recent market decline, I think today might have been the last day looks very oversold. Secondly are you surprised by the way the price of Mcdowell and Ubholdings have behaved once the news about the merger was out?
Ramesh S Damani : its a case of buy on rumor and sell on news. However, we still have major news coming from the liquor industry. It will take 6 months to happen.
vavnathan : Mr.Ramesh, yr view on Gokuldas IPO, whether we can invest in this IPO?
Ramesh S Damani : it seems a trifle expensive in this market.
scrippy : Respected Sir, What in your opinion should an investor do in the coming week? Anything you recommend to buy at these levels? Or is await and watch policy better?
Ramesh S Damani : i am well invested and I think market will punish cos that are diluting equity and are exposed to oil, but otherwise economy continues to be strong.
sureshmakhija : sureshmakhija says, sir last time you said that you will tell about mount shivalik and abee info. do u studied abt that. what r u call on these scrips, sir. Any new book recently u r reading
Ramesh S Damani : The Ascent of Man by Richard Dawkins. Not found any reason to buy the other 2 scripts.
nandita : sir, govt is not interested in FDI in media at this time. what are the prospects of TV Today according to you?
Ramesh S Damani : it would require FDI in media to get some legs.
vikrantgoyal : what are the total investments in various companies held by UBHOLD ? do they hold a share in aventis pharma also ?
Ramesh S Damani : it is in the b/s. yes they did as of last year.
TINU : sir, After the swc & mcdowell deal last week, both ub holding & mcdowell are falling with lower circuit every day. why this is happening. Is market is not impressed with deal or the valuation are high. thanks please reply
Ramesh S Damani : that is the way the market behaves. it never moves in a straight line.
sadaf : sir I have a large leverage position in the market. should I sell it or wait for market to rally, I am making profit at current rates
Ramesh S Damani : when you are leveraged listen to your self and not to outsiders.
vatsal : hi sir I want to ask you one thing why the companies like agro tech foods matsushita lakhanpal and tv today hasn't participant in this bull market? whats ur view
Ramesh S Damani : no idea, sorry.
nandita : sir, media has got a beating in this correction. will you still recommend buying tvtoday at these levels?
Ramesh S Damani : i remain well invested.
Neewbieatstock : Yes I completely agree with the theory of buy on rumor and sell on news. But it looked like someone wanted to offload a huge chunk of the stock.(mcdowell) what did u think ?
Ramesh S Damani : that is not my impression.
rksinghal : MOUNT EVEREST WATER:- It is among the few companies in india which have NATURAL mineral water resources(CATCH is another brand which has NATURAL mineral water resource).The indian mineral water market is currently 1000 crores and MOUNT EVEREST has barely 1% share (its turnover is worund 10 crores). The company is currently valued at 70 Crores. The operating income can not move up sharply (even in 2-3 years) to justify valuations from PE perspective. The postive is that they have 50 acres of mineral water source. Do you think that 50 acres of mineral water source is worth atleast 200-300 crores, then one can buy bcoz even if it gets valued at 250 crores in 3-4 years period, it is not a bad option.
Ramesh S Damani : the mathematics of this is still unclear. However your logic is broadly right. Again, I warn you the script is immature and prone to boom and bust. Be careful.
TINU : sir, ministry of disinvestment have not included balmer lawrie in the list of disinvestment. Is this the reason for the crash in this counter. thanks
Ramesh S Damani : market is also falling.
vatsal : , sir u said me one time that u owns agro tech foods. so u like that company?
Ramesh S Damani : i still do, however no new news in the co.
vikrantgoyal : where can I get the balance sheet of UB HOLDING ?
Ramesh S Damani : write to the co.
abhinav : can i buy bank of punjab at current levels ?
Ramesh S Damani : looks okay to me.
simplify : Mr Damani - as a value play bet, I think HPCL [Get Quote] is tremendous at these rates. HP & BP are getting into the category of 'hated' stocks .and I think this is a tremendous buying opportunity.
Ramesh S Damani : they could well be, though I am not following it.
jagan : Your favourite VSNL [Get Quote] is @ the recommended price, any view?
Ramesh S Damani : looks okay to me.
DamaniFan : Sir, how come SBI [Get Quote] has taken such a beating?? Its really disappointing to see such a valuable stock fall so much :-( Do u think its a good buying opportunity?
Ramesh S Damani : it has taken a beating. I am perplexed why it is the first stock to fall so sharply.
vatsal : sir one last question I believe that indian market never runs by FIIs it is only driven by indian operators bcoz they play with public's psychology. am I right?
Ramesh S Damani : i disagree.
baracuda : have yu noticed how rock solid macmillan has been these days,do yu still consider it to be a great investment
Ramesh S Damani : i dont know about great but it helps in such down drafts to own it.
kalyan : Now that the market is falling, I want to add to my ubholdings, gati, mcdowell and aegis stocks. what is your opinion
Ramesh S Damani : you know my views. Invest if you have patience.
SA : AFTEK INFOSYS [Get Quote] : Dont u think you are not fair to this co. Whats wrong in it , co. is growing 40% every year , 45% net margin , 45% revenues coming in Euro , Arexera bstake has great potential then why u reject it. Even valuations wise not expensive
Ramesh S Damani : what dividend have they paid.
sks : Sir, the Swiss company Nestle owns all the major water resources in the world. They might consider taking over Mount Everest. In that case what could be a reasonable valuation?
Ramesh S Damani : that is speculative. However it does have a strategic asset.
blazing : Ramesh, Dont you think corrections like these act as deterrent to long term investing. I mean profits have dwindled drastically. So wont it be prudent to be constantly buying and selling??? Plz answer. Thanks.
Ramesh S Damani : history teaches us otherwise. constant trading makes your broker rich and the tax man.
InfyUser : Sir, Please comment on MSK Projects? I have analysed and convinced, I need your view also.
Ramesh S Damani : unfortunately I don't follow it.If you are convinced invest in it.
jainV : Good day MrDamani, Balaji distillr, any fun here, does mallya already have a stake?? I accumulated some at 11. Khoday is going strange-sold their brands?
Ramesh S Damani : yes but liquor stocks are getting rerated and plus they will have a bpo business. (not recd b/s yet).
ramank : Sir, what should be the Market Cap/Sales ratio value for a Value stock?
Ramesh S Damani : around 0.1 to 0.25 is a good place to look at.
ahmedabadguys : CLSA is saying 5900 INDEX. SSKI sees first 5800 & then 5300.UDAY KOTAK said in January on CNBC that past history suggests markets tops out in APRIL.May be we are entering in painful period with may be not so gr8 2006 for corporate earnings and a bad monsoon( I pray to have the normal one though)
Ramesh S Damani : I am not a good timer of the market.
william : Hi Mr Damani is there some thing cooking at GPI. Also as VST usually moves in tandem do u feel it should have a move upwards
Ramesh S Damani : gpi has been strong. VST seems undervalued.
amardeep : seems like you are deliberately avoiding the issue of T.V Today. It has already fallen 25% since you strongly recommended it. Had it been USA people might have thought of taking legal action???
Ramesh S Damani : i dont give any guarantees, if I could I would be richer than Midas. Market rise and fall. you have to take a view and invest with your knowledge.
ram2005 : Sir, your view on Apollo hospitals [Get Quote]?
Ramesh S Damani : bullish.
SA : Top Picks : please suggest 3 picks at this present time , that may . include your earlier recommended one. this will help all of us
Ramesh S Damani : i dislike giving 3 new ideas every week. you all know the stocks I like.
radheparam : sir why are you bullish on apollo hospitals at this valuation
Ramesh S Damani : i am holding it.
Anand : sir,IPCL [Get Quote] is not taken a part in the bull run ,now it starts falling with the market...any specific reason. do u think it will merge with reliance in long run?
Ramesh S Damani : odds are good.
saanjay : sir u reply more nonrelevent question (like legal one) than some stock specific questions
Ramesh S Damani : i cant answer everyone question. I told you in earlier session of the philosophy of answering Q.
surya : surya roshni and TCi , still looking good , any ideas in this downfall , we ned your shoulders in times like these . and your shoulders are really broad to take our queries week after week . Thanks for being there for us
Ramesh S Damani : i enjoy it, they look good to me.
SA : INFOTECH ENTERPRISES [Get Quote] and ZENSAR are 2 companies which are out of woods and doing well. Have u made up your mind to include these in your mid cap tech basket
Ramesh S Damani : i follow them, but not bought them.
TINU : amardeep you are idiot, you have no knowledge of market, dont blame on damani sir, first do your own homework and then invest. am I right sir.
Ramesh S Damani : people should do own homework,making money is not so simple as following an analyst.
vikashdamani : sir what is ur view on mtnl at 111. plz do reply
Ramesh S Damani : somehow have never done well in mtnl so avoid it.
SA : SA : U took it wrong , I didn't ask 3 new ideas , I said with market fall which 3 looks more attractive now
Ramesh S Damani : nucleus and gati look attractive to get you started.
ramank : Sir, can you give 1 line answer for cash flows increasing in Cash flow statement YOY mean?
Ramesh S Damani : it is positive but it is one parameter.
amardeep : Ok Peace. Now at 71 what's your view on T.V Today? Do you think the cabinet will pass the FII decision before 31st March.
Ramesh S Damani : unlikely.
ahmedabadguys : Sir I agree market timings are difficult to judge but there are lot of investors whom to guide about the overall valuations of the market and for particular scripts is very important & you are one of the finest Individual to do that job on this platform. I think every one here agrees on this.
Ramesh S Damani : thx for the nice words.
susmita : sir among ur recommendation , surya roshni , bank of punjab , aegis logitech , arvind products , shree rajasthan texchem..only aegis is doing well , rest all the shares have gone down. do you thing we should buy at this level to average the price?
Ramesh S Damani : these are amongst my recent recommendations. I dont like to average per se.
vikashdamani : SIR dont u think a company which pays dividends so regularly with huge cash flows and soon to be acquired by bsnl is not a great value buy. if u kindly look at this stock . to me its better than punting on other stocks
Ramesh S Damani : you may be right, but I have given up on the stock.
vavnathan : Mr.Ramesh, I am repeatedly asking this question, please confirm me whether you are taking about VST tillers?
Ramesh S Damani : we were talking about VST (Tobacco) i believe.
mansri : Sir, Goldiam Intl. is steady in the last few days. Today is has fallen by about 10%. Is it a good buy at these levels? Pl advise
Ramesh S Damani : no new view.
jagan : Any particular reason for recomending Bank of punjab ??
Ramesh S Damani : weak banks can be privatised (sold(.
surya : I am willing to take a punt , if you say Mt everest is a good buy at CMP tomorrow it will be on circuit irrespective of the market , that's how much your fans follow you and check the volumes too
Ramesh S Damani : may I respectfully suggest that you build your own conviction. Ultimately that is what makes money to all of us. Good luck and see you all next. weekbye.
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