Updating its earlier monsoon forecast, the India Meteorological Department on Wednesday said total rainfall during the current monsoon season (June to September) would be 98 per cent of the long-period average (LPA) of 88 cm for the country.

The earlier prediction, issued on April 16, had reckoned it at 96 per cent.

The probability of drought, earlier assessed at 21 per cent, is now deemed to be merely 6 per cent. There is a 43 per cent probability of normal rainfall and 17 per cent of above normal.

The probability of below-normal rainfall is now estimated at only 28 per cent. Moreover, there is a 6 per cent chance of excess rainfall.

Rainfall in the month of July, which is agriculturally the most crucial period, has been predicted for the first time this year. The IMD forecasts it to be around 102 per cent of the normal, with a model error of 9 per cent.

All the three meteorologically homogeneous regions of the country - the northwest, northeast and peninsular India - are likely to get near-normal rainfall this season, according to the IMD.

While northwest India may get around 97 per cent of normal precipitation, the Northeast will get 100 per cent and the peninsular region 99 per cent.

So far, total monsoon precipitation in the country as a whole is 6 per cent above normal.

The first long-range forecast of the southwest monsoon, issued by the IMD on April 16 this year against the earlier practice of announcing it around May 25, was based on an eight-parameter power regression model having a model error of 5 per cent.

The forecast update issued today is based on a 10-parameter power regression model that has a relatively lower model error of 4 per cent.

Announcing this at a press conference, IMD Director-General R R Kelkar said the use of four new monsoon prediction models this year, instead of the earlier 16-parameter model, had made it possible to not only update the forecast in July but also to assess the probability of drought and predict rainfall for the month.

Kelkar said the monsoon so far was good in most parts of the country, despite its belated arrival.

The southwest monsoon had hit the Northeast on June 5, three days before arriving on the Kerala coast and about a week behind its schedule. It reached Delhi on July 5, covering all parts of the country by the same date.

Total precipitation between June 1 and July 2 was 106 per cent of the long-period average for this period in the country as a whole. Of the total 36 meteorological sub-divisions, 30 had received normal or excess rainfall, five deficient precipitation and one scanty rainfall.

Kelkar said the notorious El Nino (anomalous warming of the equatorial Pacific Ocean), which occurred over a quasi-periodic cycle of three to six years, had now ended, creating favourable conditions for the monsoon.

He, however, pointed out that the El Nino did not have a one-to-one correlation with the monsoon's performance, though it was generally considered unfavourable for a normal monsoon.

On the other hand, La Nina (the opposite of the El Nino, caused by the anomalous cooling of the Pacific Ocean) has a direct and positive correlation with the monsoon.

"So far, there is conclusive evidence of only the end of the El Nino. The advent of the La Nina will be known in another two months," Kelkar explained.