Security concerns loom large over
India-Pak-Iran gas pipeline
Tara Shankar Sahay in New Delhi
Pakistani optimism in the proposed Iran-Pakistan-India gas pipeline is premature and not much should be read into the recent signing of a memorandum of understanding between a Russian firm and Islamabad on it, an analyst said on Saturday.
"The signing of an MoU does not automatically lead to an agreement. It provides a framework for further examination of the matter," pointed out Dr Sreedhar Rao, specialising in Iranian affairs at the Institute of Defence Studies and Analyses.
Rao pointed out that the MoU envisaged empowering the Russian energy firm to submit a feasibility report on Iran-Pakistan-India pipeline.
Earlier, the Iranian government had requested the state-owned Gas Authority of India Limited to consider associating Gazprom for laying the $3 billion pipeline for which feasibility studies are reportedly in progress.
Despite the growing Indo-Iranian relations, the proposed three-nation project has not made much headway, the IDSA analyst emphasised.
Officials in Islamabad appeared upbeat after the November 13 signing of the MoU between the Russian energy firm and Pakistan that seeks the trans-Pakistan pipeline to enhance oil and gas cooperation.
The Moscow-Islamabad signing of the MoU led to a media report underscoring that (Indian) Deputy Prime Minister Lal Kishenchand Advani had grave reservations about the pipeline passing through Pakistani territory given the frosty Indo-Pak relations in the aftermath of the terrorist attack on the Indian Parliament.
The report portrayed Advani being apprehensive of the reported Russian move to hard-sell the Iran-Pakistan-India gas pipeline in view of New Delhi's concerns on the security aspect.
However, Rao dismissed the report as being 'inspired' and averred: "The official strategists in Islamabad have gone into an overdrive in a bid to lay down Russian president Vladimir Putin's impending visit to India commencing December 4 this year."
He pointed out that following Pakistan's MoU with Gazprom, officials in Islamabad were striving to create the impression that president Putin was impatient to finalise the three-nation proposed project.
"Right now, I can say that they (the Pakistani officials) are living in a fool's paradise. The Russians are fully aware of our security concerns," he contended.
"It is unlikely that Russian President Putin will stick his neck out on it (the pipeline) which has such grave security implications for us, he said.
He pointed out that after the discovery of natural gas reserves in the Krishna-Godavari basin and West Bengal, the energy profile of the Indian subcontinent had undergone a dramatic change.
Underscoring that the announcements of more discoveries of natural gas was in the offing by the contracting parties, he said it was noted by energy experts that the demand for natural gas and crude oil was not as high as projected by western oil companies in this region.
"The energy consumption pattern is undergoing a qualitative change with hydro-electric power coming in for its share of attention of the energy planners," he pointed out.
"The shift-over from crude oil to natural gas in the fertiliser and power sectors is already sending ripples through the investors' mind about the future of crude oil demand in the Indian subcontinent," he said.
The ongoing battle between crude oil and natural has as energy source materials resembled what happened when the shift was occurring from coal to crude oil during the 1940s and 50s, Rao pointed out.
Thus, many oil company investors are likely to lose until and unless they change over from crude oil to natural gas, he said.
"In this backdrop, if one looks at the announcement from Islamabad about Gazprom signing an MoU with Pakistan on the proposed Iranian pipeline to India. The whole thing looks premature," he said.
He also pointed out that the announcement in Islamabad came a month before the first anniversary of the terrorist attack on Parliament on December 13, 2001 and that official Pakistani circles had described the proposed three-nation pipeline as a significant (Indo-Pak) confidence building measure.
An official of the ministry of external affairs pointed out: "We will announce if it (the proposed pipeline) warrants comment. Presently we have nothing to say."
The press attache of the Iranian embassy, Amir Reza Kheradmand, told rediff.com: "Our leaders have described it (the proposed pipeline) as a pipeline of friendship. Given the warm and friendly relations between our two countries, we hope that it will fructify."
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