It may not be much today, but experts are betting on it being huge tomorrow. B2C e-commerce, the hype about which spawned a mighty number of portals all over India, has survived the dotcom bust. According to the Boston Consulting Group Nasscom survey, the volume of online transactions by individual consumers (online retail business) is expected to touch Rs 3,000 crore in India, by 2005.

However, the online retail figures for India in the just - ended 2000-2001 fiscal is quite dismal, at around Rs 150 crore. However, a recent BCG study titled Digital Dragons points out that even with their current low volumes, B2C e-commerce grew by 400 per cent in markets like India, China and a few other Asian tigers, in 2000.

Even as the overall picture for B2C e-commerce in India looks bright in the near-term, it wouldn’tbe such a good news for click-and-click e-commerce portals, which make their money by taking a commission on sales of goods and services that happens through their portals. “Taking a ½ per cent average rate of commission for these portals, one arrives at the figure of Rs 1.5 crore on a transaction volume of Rs 3,000 crore. Not even 50 portals can survive on that kind of money,” says a BCG analyst.

A key message, according to IT analysts, is that it is brick-and-mortar companies that are going to recap the maximum advantage of the B2C e-commerce, as they extend their goods and services online. “In financial services, for example, ICICI or HDFC Bank will be streets ahead in providing such services compared to a pure-play financial portal,” says an analyst.

According to BCG analysts, the crucial factor that will lead to a growth in online retail revenues between 2000-2001 and 2005-2006 will be the growing importance of online bill payment, especially for the telecom and internet sectors. “The mobile and basic telecom operators, both government and private, are likely to turn in a big way towards online bill payments,” a BCG analyst said.

Breaking up BCG- Nasscom’s figures for B2C e-commerce revenues of Rs 3,000 crore by 2005-2006, one finds that sector-wise, the top four revenue earners in the B2C e-commerce category in that period will be:

• Telecom with Rs 750 crore
  
• Consumer electronics and computer hardware at Rs 550 crore
  
• Travel and tourism at Rs 450 crore
  
• Automobiles at Rs 450 crore
  
• Financial services, including broking and banking, comes at No. 5 position in the B2C e-commerce stakes.