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M I Jehangir in Srinagar
A low voter turnout is expected in the Shopian and Tral segments of Pulwama district as it goes to the polls with Anantnag, Kathua, and Udhampur on October 1 as the fear of militant strikes reigns supreme among the candidates and the electorate.
When the Congress candidate for Shopian, Mohammad Shafi Banday, mustered enough courage to hold a rally, he had only his personnel security officers and entourage to address.
Banday as well as his rival from the National Conference, Sheikh Mohammed Rafiq, have survived several militant attacks in the run-up to the polls.
Other candidates in the fray are Kumar Mohammad Ilyas of the Bharatiya Janata Party, Ghulam Nabi Yatoo of the Communist Party of India, Ghulam Hassan Khan of the People's Democratic Party, and an independent, Ghulam Nabi Shah.
The candidates are showing a lot of courage and it will be a close fight between Banday and Sheikh. But the activities of militants over the next two days will be a crucial factor as to how close the contest will be.
The area is reportedly infested by ultras belonging to the pro-Pakistan Lashkar-e-Tayiba and Jaish-e-Mohammed, two of the deadliest militant outfits banned by the Centre and the United States.
Tral is also expected to see a low voter turnout on account of the same reason --- a strong militant presence. Although three candidates are in the fray in this constituency, it will be a fight between the two contestants belonging to the minority Sikh community. Surprisingly, National Conference candidate Ghulam Nabi Bhat is not considered a serious contender.
If the status quo holds on polling day, Surender Singh of Congress is being tipped over the Bahujan Samaj Party's Surjeet Singh in the contest.
The majority of the Muslim community has so far stayed away from the election. Some of them preferred to visit their relatives in other villages to avoid any untoward incident during election rallies.
Surender Singh on Friday went to Tral town to hold an election rally. But as soon as news of the rally spread, shopkeepers downed shutters and the town wore a deserted look.
It is widely believed that the Sikh vote, which forms a significant proportion of the electorate in the segment, will be the deciding factor and the dedicated National Conference cadre vote will not be able to make much of a dent into Surender Singh's chances.
The National Conference had won both the Tral and Shopian seats with comfortable margins in the assembly polls of 1996. This time, however, the anti-incumbency and militancy factors might lead to its debacle.
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