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Sheela Bhatt in Srinagar
For Jammu and Kashmir Chief Minister Farooq Abdullah, the writing on the wall appears clear, and legible.
On September 22, he told an election rally near Srinagar that in the event his party, the ruling National Conference, failed to get a majority, it would prefer to sit in opposition rather than attempt to cobble a coalition government.
That statement reflects the growing perception that the assembly election is likely to return a vote for change.
Voter surveys and opinion polls conducted by pro-establishment organisations indicate that the NC will scrape through with a wafer-thin majority, while 'independent' polls predict that the ruling party will fail to reach majority.
"There is an anti-incumbency undercurrent," says People's Democratic Party founder Mufti Mohammad Sayeed, who has begun speculating of a non-NC chief minister in his media briefings.
"The NC will be the single largest party, but it will not get an absolute majority," predicts Congress leader and former central minister Saifuddin Soz. "Kashmir is headed for a coalition."
Prior to the election, the Congress, PDP, CPI-M and a few independents had attempted, unsuccessfully, to cobble a united front against the NC. A senior politician in Srinagar indicates that the Prime Minister's Office was keen to give logistic support to such a front, but the home ministry intervened.
The word is that Sayeed, who is considered close to Deputy Prime Minister L K Advani, opted out of such a common front at the behest of the home ministry.
Thus, though the electorate is largely against the ruling party, the division of the anti votes between the Congress, the PDP and others could ensure that the NC benefits.
An All Parties Hurriyat Conference-sponsored boycott of the second phase of polling, scheduled for September 24, could help the NC cause further -- given that low polling traditionally favours the incumbent.
The crucial segment of the ongoing polls will be phase three in south Kashmir, scheduled for October 1. The area is considered a militant stronghold where the PDP has considerable clout -- thus, the outcome of polling in this region could well decide whether the NC barely tops, or falls short of, majority.
"Even if NC forms the government, it will not have any credibility," argues Soz, pointing out that failure to win an absolute majority is in effect a defeat for the ruling party.
"From here on, it will be difficult for them to contain the people's dissatisfaction," he said.
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