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The U-turn in UP

I travelled around a 1,000 kilometres in Uttar Pradesh last weekend. By now all of us know that the prospect of a hung assembly is inevitable.

The options seems clear. The Samajwadi Party and the Bhartiya Janta Party are in a neck-to-neck race. There will be a difference of 10-12 seats (between the two parties). It's almost certain that no party will cross the benchmark of 160 seats. As far as western UP is concerned, it is a battle between the BJP and its allies versus Mayawati's Bahujan Samaj Party. Out of the 403 seats being contested by the Samajwadi Party, it's influence is only visible in some 300 seats. SP is again not very impressive in the urban areas.

The most glaring part of this election is the use (or should I say the misuse) of helicopters. Leaders from all parties, without any exception, are flying between villages in helicopters to attract crowds. Shockingly, not only leaders but their deputies too are doing the same. So much so, that if it rains they prefer to stay back to avoid going to their voters by road. Leaders, who claim to be pro-poor or Ambedkarwadis or Socialists are spending millions to impress voters. Helicopters or private planes are the first priority in this election.

Another noticeable aspect of this election, in terms of campaigning, is the visible presence of the Congress. The party seems to have found a little of its confidence back. Banners and campaign vehicles can be seen. But I doubt it (Congress) will be successful in getting votes.

Mayawati's attitude has also undergone a major change this time. There is a sea change in terms of the caste equation in the villages. Her abusive and insulting tirade against the upper classes and Manuwadis (Brahmanical order) has been replaced by sober speeches.

I would say this is the biggest positive development in the larger interest of the society in Uttar Pradesh.

Mayawati has fielded 92 candidates from the upper class. Earlier, she allotted 5 to10 seats to Brahmins or Baniyas. But now she says that not all among the upper caste are Manuwadis! "We are not against the upper caste, we want to carry all castes with us," is her latest mantra. No doubt this is a 180 degree turn but I think this is a positive development.

It is good for the state that people from the upper caste have approached Mayawati's Dalit party to beg for tickets. It is irrelevant when people say she has been paid for granting those tickets. What matters is that a number of Brahmins, Kayasthas, Baniyas, Thakurs are contesting on the symbol of a Dalit party. Ask me, we the people of UP know what this means. This is the beauty of Indian democracy.

The Bahujan Samaj Party was a completely closed organisation. The risk of a social conflict was enormous. This (inclusion of the upper castes) is the most significant socio-political development witnessed by Uttar Pradesh during this election. Even Samajwadi Party chief, Mulayam Singh Yadav has conceded that political parties have to take all sections along with them. He too has given tickets to many more non-Yadavs.

In the bargain, Muslims have got the best of both parties. Both BSP and SP have given tickets to Muslims in overwhelming numbers. In western UP, one can see the presence of Muslim candidates everywhere.

Similarly with the BJP. They are not talking about the mandir any more. The BJP is bound to lose votes for distancing itself from Ayodhya, but it shows how the party has matured.

It (BJP) is now talking about Pakistan, terrorism, the governance of (chief minister) Rajnath Singh and about (granting) reservation to the most backward classes. This when, till the last election, the BJP was considered just an upper caste party.

This is an interesting show where an upper caste party is trying to woo the most backward classes and a Dalit party is trying to attract upper caste votes.

In UP, another hot topic is the criminalisation of politics. No single party should be blamed for it, all are equally involved. Criminals keep moving from one party to another. I can bet that if Manmohan Singh (former finance minister) contests against alleged rape accused Sakshi Maharaj or any other mafia don, Singh would lose the election. Bad people get elected because good people don't go to vote. Those you call mafia dons and who are in the fray, are symbols of pride in their community.

The criminalisation of politics is linked to the politics of caste. Since the caste equation dominates vote politics, criminals are in the forefront.

Any Tandon or Kapoor from Punjab, even if he is mafia don, cannot win an election in UP. It is not a criminal nexus but a caste nexus that matters. The combination of caste and crime is a winning formula in the electoral politics of UP and Bihar.

It is because of a casteist voting pattern that UP has witnessed a hung assembly since the last five elections.

It's a tragedy that UP -- the largest state of India doesn't have a single good hospital. When our governor suffers from a chest pain, he is flown to Delhi. People don't talk about development as much because we don't have any money for it. Funds are used to pay the salaries of government servants or eaten away by thekedars (contractors).

We need an Ayodhya-type of a big issue to contain the effect of the caste card.

The issue of terrorism is raised by LK Advani just because criticising terrorism today means criticising Islamic fundamentalism. That helps them. But unfortunately for the BJP the kind of anti-Pakistan fervour that was present in early January is disappearing fast.

I heard the prime minister's speech near Meerut in UP. In the absence of an issue, he was picking up economic issues also. He told farmers: "Europe remains covered under snow for many months. We have ample sun, we should export flowers and fruits to them." He also said that the Government of India has decided to permit the mixing of ethylon (byproduct of sugarcane) and petrol. This would help sugarcane producers and save foreign exchange.

The outcome of the UP election is not going to have an impact on the Centre in the near future. Though the BJP is exposed -- it is no longer a party with a difference -- but still the fact remains that no allies of the National Democratic Allaince are in a position to leave or dump the BJP.

Rajiv Shukla, a member of Parliament in the Rajya Sabha, spoke to Sheela Bhatt

Elections 2002: Full Coverage